By John Q. Hosedrinker 
China has responded to claims that its support is enabling Russia’s war in Ukraine by stating that trade relations are “normal” and that they are promoting peace talks. These comments were made after Keith Kellogg, U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, suggested the war would quickly end if China withdrew its support. Beijing accused the U.S. of “bullying” for urging NATO allies and the G7 to increase pressure on China and Russia with new sanctions. China’s Foreign Ministry maintains that their trade with Russia is in accordance with WTO rules and not targeted at any third party, further stating they will take countermeasures if their rights are harmed.
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China’s reaction to the Trump administration’s claims regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine is multifaceted and complex, reflecting a delicate balancing act. The initial response from Beijing has been to downplay the accusations and maintain a stance of neutrality, primarily by emphasizing normal trade relations and promoting peace talks. However, this official position belies a more nuanced reality.
The assertion that China is merely a bystander is challenged by evidence suggesting significant material support for Russia’s war effort. Reports, including those from US intelligence, indicate a surge in equipment sales from China to Russia, including items that would directly aid the Russian military. These encompass everything from body armor and drones to thermal optics, effectively equipping a substantial portion of the Russian forces. This tangible support raises serious questions about China’s true intentions and level of involvement in the conflict.
Furthermore, it appears that China sees both advantages and disadvantages in the current situation. On one hand, the war has offered China the opportunity to acquire Russian resources at discounted prices, including oil and gas. This economic benefit aligns with China’s strategic interest in securing its access to these vital resources. Simultaneously, the conflict has created instability that has hindered both China’s economic partners.
The potential collapse of Russia, however, presents a separate set of challenges. While it could open the door for China to expand its influence into Siberia, a chaotic Russia could also destabilize China’s border. It would also remove a major player tying up US/NATO forces in Europe. This illustrates China’s complex relationship with Russia: a beneficial, but ultimately unpredictable and even risky partner.
From China’s perspective, the longer the war drags on, the less favorable the situation becomes. The destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and regions rich in resources is costing China money. A quick, decisive Russian victory would have been preferable, allowing China to benefit from a stable, if weakened, neighbor. The current situation is far from ideal, and this shift in conditions has likely changed how the Chinese government regards the war.
The issue is further complicated by the hypocrisy of Western nations, who still trade with Russia despite their condemnation of the war. China is quick to point out this double standard, arguing that it’s not alone in its economic dealings with Russia. This narrative plays well in the developing world and allows China to deflect criticism. This further undermines the credibility of the accusations.
China’s actions should be viewed through a lens of realpolitik. The nation prioritizes its national interests above all else, and its support for Russia is, in part, a calculated move to counter the United States and advance its international strategic aims. It is also a business opportunity in the form of cheap resources and access to Russian markets.
The situation in Ukraine highlights the difficulty of isolating a major global power like China. Sanctioning China, a major trader in the world, would have devastating economic consequences for many nations, including the United States and Europe. This reality limits the options available to the West and provides China with leverage.
The complexities of the Russia-Ukraine war have placed China in a difficult position. While it officially calls for peace, it continues to provide support to Russia, and it is unwilling to alienate a major trading partner. This situation is a reflection of China’s own geopolitical and economic objectives. It reflects a commitment to expanding its own power in a chaotic global arena. Ultimately, China’s actions speak louder than its words.