By John Q. Hosedrinker 
According to a classified US military intelligence report, China is rapidly expanding its commercial ferry fleet, potentially for an invasion of Taiwan. The report reveals modifications to these vessels, enabling them to carry tanks and participate in amphibious operations, and China is building over 70 large ferries by the end of 2026. The US intelligence community has expressed concern over these preparations, with a Pentagon report considering these ferries as potential military targets in a conflict scenario. This assessment has prompted debate within the US Indo-Pacific Command, weighing the legality of targeting civilian vessels against the potential military advantage China gains from this dual-use strategy.
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China’s actions have long suggested an underlying ambition concerning Taiwan, and the construction of a substantial ferry fleet is now being viewed as a potential indicator of more aggressive intentions. This isn’t just speculation; a classified report, or so it is understood, has surfaced that explicitly links this naval buildup to preparations for a possible invasion of Taiwan. The sheer scale and speed of this construction, coupled with the known strategic importance China places on Taiwan, raise serious questions about the future of the region.
It seems that China has been taking notes from Russia’s playbook in Ukraine. The possibility looms that rather than a full-scale invasion, China could initiate a naval blockade. Such a move, while technically short of a direct invasion, is still an act of war, carrying immense economic and strategic implications. The world is watching, sensing a real potential for a wider conflict, given the interconnectedness of global powers, resources, and alliances.
The stakes are incredibly high, particularly when you consider Taiwan’s critical role in the global economy. Taiwan manufactures approximately 70% of the world’s semiconductors, and the disruption caused by conflict would send shockwaves through the electronics industry, potentially leading to a dramatic surge in prices. A smartphone costing $3,000 might become a grim reality.
It’s almost common knowledge at this point that China has been strategically designing commercial vessels, including ferries, freight carriers, and even fuel tankers, to be easily converted for military use in the event of an invasion. This suggests a proactive approach to a possible military operation, providing a means of rapidly deploying troops and supplies across the Taiwan Strait. Anecdotal reports from the region indicate that many ship captains near Taiwan are reportedly eager to participate in such an operation, openly joking about it with tourists.
The Chinese population’s inherent nationalism plays a significant role, similar to the spirit that drove citizens during events like Dunkirk. China views the reunification with Taiwan as a matter of national honor and duty, and the government’s rhetoric increasingly suggests that the diplomatic option is losing credibility. The US military faced severe challenges during WWII when considering an incursion into Taiwan, and it eventually decided on a full surrender to Japan.
A full-scale invasion would be a brutal conflict, potentially more devastating than anything witnessed in recent decades. Taiwan, already occupying the island, possesses defensive advantages that could make the Chinese advance a bloody and regretful undertaking. However, China has the capacity to inflict major damage on Taiwan’s coastal defenses, creating a tough war environment.
There are questions about the practicality of a successful amphibious assault. Launching enough troops across the 136-mile Taiwan Strait without significant losses is a daunting task. The conditions that contributed to the success of D-Day – lack of advanced satellite technology, long-range missiles, and modern naval armaments – are no longer present. The modern battlefield is a very different place. The speed at which the US Pacific fleet can reinforce Taiwan, and its vulnerability to China’s arsenal, are key factors.
The best approach would be to arm Taiwan to the teeth. If China truly desires reunification, a more appealing approach is needed that attracts the Taiwanese to reunify willingly.
Many believe the timing of any potential action by China is a strategic one, waiting for the United States to be more disorganized on the world stage. With internal political turmoil, there may be less appetite for foreign intervention. The United States’ long history of global engagement would suggest its involvement, but its response is far from certain.
However, the US can deploy its defenses in a strategically advantageous way. China’s eastern coast is mostly rural, with layers of defenses that can react in minutes. China is not ready for the war machine that has had 14 years of peace since 1776.
It is understood that ASML, a Netherlands-based company supplying TSMC (Taiwan) with advanced chipmaking machines, has a contingency plan to remotely disable its equipment in the event of a Chinese seizure. Also, the US military has plans to destroy the factories if China invades.
There is talk about the fact that they are not ready for the war machine and the US might consider this advantageous to China. There are concerns about what Trump might do in this situation if he were to regain power, and that this would be the best time for China to make their move.
The invasion is not something one can launch without prior obvious signs. The question is, how many vessels would be necessary for the invasion? Some reports suggest that 60 are produced or are in production. Also, would Taiwan consider targeting troop carriers, which could cause outrage in China? Could China spin the ferry fleet as defensive, and are there any defensive purposes for such a fleet?
The anti-ship missiles of Taiwan would make the process not worth it for China. Also, China’s demographics may require it to act sooner rather than later.
While constant talk about a potential invasion has become a recurring theme, it’s crucial to distinguish between speculation and tangible preparations. There’s a history of such concerns, and it is crucial to separate actual preparations from speculative reporting. Taiwan has strong defenses, including anti-ship missiles and coastal defense systems that could pose a significant challenge to any blockade or invasion. China’s success would be in question when faced with a naval blockade.
China’s planning, however, extends far beyond the immediate. The design, planning, and construction of these ships predate the Russia-Ukraine war. It is important to note that the invasion would be incredibly difficult to execute, with only a few historical examples of successful amphibious assaults.
It has also been reported that the ships are being produced at a faster rate than ever before, with significant stockpiling of oil. The Pentagon has estimated that China would invade Taiwan by 2027. Also, the leaders of Germany and France have asked their hospitals to prepare for 1,000 casualties per day by next year.