By John Q. Hosedrinker 
According to Ukraine’s top military commander, Russia is rapidly escalating its mobilization efforts, intending to establish ten new military divisions by year-end, with two already formed. Despite suffering significant losses, estimated at over 33,200 personnel in July alone, Russia is adding approximately 9,000 troops monthly. In response, Ukraine is increasing its own mobilization, enhancing combat training, and bolstering its unmanned capabilities, as well as implementing military reforms to improve coordination and effectiveness.
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Syrskyi’s declaration that Ukraine must mobilize to counter growing Russian forces cuts straight to the heart of a brutal reality. The war’s demands are relentless, and the imbalance in manpower is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The attrition rate, the relentless loss of personnel, creates a constant need for replenishment. While the situation is horrific for Ukraine, the consistent flow of recruits has seemingly allowed Russia to maintain a semblance of normalcy for its citizens, keeping the war at arm’s length for many. However, if losses surge, perhaps with Russia suffering more casualties, it could force Putin into a difficult position, leading to his own mobilization efforts or heavier reliance on desperate measures, like conscripting from prisons.
The stark reality of the front lines, with small groups of soldiers stretched across vast sections, highlights the critical need for more troops. This is a war of attrition, and Ukraine is losing ground not only on the battlefield but also in the demographic war. The West’s hesitance to commit fully, including the provision of boots on the ground, further complicates matters. Even if Ukraine pushed for a political solution, it would require addressing pro-western extremist influence. While international support, particularly financial aid, should be increased to facilitate the recruitment of international fighters, Ukraine must prioritize its survival. Delaying mobilization only puts Ukraine at a greater disadvantage in this war.
The underestimation of Russian propaganda and Putin’s determination poses a significant threat. Demographic problems in Ukraine due to high casualty rates won’t be Putin’s problem, so this war will cause Ukraine’s future generations to struggle. The numbers and ratios bandied about, especially those painting a highly favorable picture for Ukraine, are highly suspect. It’s a meat grinder on both sides, and Russia’s advantages in drones, artillery, and air power add another layer of difficulty. The suggestion of a 20:1 kill ratio in favor of Ukraine seems highly unlikely given all the information. The fact that the age for conscription has been preserved for so long shows their desire to hold off on adding to the problem as much as possible.
It’s important to note that the call for mobilization isn’t necessarily the beginning of a process, but rather a continuation of existing efforts. The situation is dire, the casualty numbers are tragically high on both sides. Some data indicate that Ukraine recruits new personnel and *at least* an equal number leave the army. This means that Ukraine’s army is *decreasing* in size every month, while Russia’s side is *increasing*. So, it is highly likely that Oleksandr Syrskyi is saying that Ukraine needs to ramp up its mobilization efforts.
One must consider the underlying motivation for those serving. While propaganda plays a role, money is a powerful motivator for Russians. Significant bonuses and hazard pay provide a financial incentive for those who might otherwise avoid military service. Also, those involved in minor offenses are pressured into enlistment, while immigrants are offered citizenship for service. It’s critical to evaluate the sources of casualty numbers and the realities on the ground.
When discussing the need to mobilize, it is worth reflecting on the history of major wars, in which all major combatants needed to mobilize their populations to win. If Ukraine’s losses are as low as they claim, why is mobilization necessary? Ukraine must do what other major combatants have done, or the veterans in their current army will desert. The current soldiers must be supported and replaced, or their mental health could be severely affected. The European Union is not doing them any favors by allowing those who deserted their country to stay in Europe.
The discussion cannot ignore the broader strategic context. Russia is the attacking force, and attacking forces typically suffer higher casualty ratios. If a political settlement becomes the only alternative, it must be recognized that Russia may have higher ambitions than simply seizing territory. If Ukraine’s male population gets wiped out in the war, how will the country look in the following decades? And if the West is so concerned about Russia invading Ukraine, maybe its time for other countries to get involved.
The reality of this conflict is brutal, and the cost in human life on both sides is devastating. Ukraine’s call for mobilization is a recognition of this grim reality, a necessary step to ensure its survival in the face of a relentless and determined foe.