By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the outgoing Chief of the Defence Staff of the UK, discussed post-war security guarantees for Ukraine in a final interview. He revealed a common position among allies to support a ceasefire and a just peace, with discussions focused on providing security guarantees similar to NATO Article 5. Radakin confirmed that the UK and France are prepared to deploy troops in Ukraine as part of these guarantees, with a commitment to long-term support and continued efforts to rebuild Ukraine’s forces. He emphasized the devastating impact of the war on Russia and expressed confidence in Ukraine’s victory, envisioning a future of peace and prosperity for the nation.
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The central takeaway, as articulated by a UK military chief, is stark: while Vladimir Putin is undeniably the architect of this war, a significant portion of the Russian population tacitly or actively supports his views. This isn’t just about official propaganda or fear of reprisal; it’s a complex issue with deep roots.
The discussions with Russian military leaders before the invasion were frank, warning of the disastrous consequences of their plans. The UK, deeply invested in understanding Russian military capabilities, saw the potential for a disaster unfolding. The warnings were ignored, and the disaster has unfolded.
The reality is, for many, expressing dissent in Russia is a dangerous game. History teaches us that the price of speaking out can be severe, ranging from imprisonment to something far more sinister. This creates a climate where silence becomes a survival mechanism. The lack of widespread, vocal opposition doesn’t necessarily equate to enthusiastic support, but it does mean that the dominant narrative, the one that supports the war, remains unchallenged.
The narrative of a “great empire dream” and the influence of state-controlled media play a significant role. Years of carefully crafted messaging have cultivated a worldview where Ukraine is seen as an extension of Russia, and the West is viewed with suspicion and hostility. This, combined with a lack of access to diverse perspectives and independent information, has fostered a sense of collective identity where the government’s actions are seen as justifiable.
It’s easy to dismiss the Russian population as homogenous and uniformly supportive. But, to understand the situation, we must recognize that many people are simply afraid. The consequences of speaking out against the regime, or even showing a lack of support, are severe. This is further compounded by the lack of freedom of expression and the control the government has over the media, leading many to accept the government’s narrative out of a lack of alternatives.
There are those who have left Russia. They’ve voted with their feet, seeking refuge from a reality they can no longer accept. But for those who remain, the options are limited. This isn’t to excuse the actions of the Russian government or minimize the suffering inflicted on Ukraine. It’s simply an attempt to understand the complexities of the situation on the ground.
The military’s deep understanding of Russian capabilities, developed over decades, reinforces the stark assessment. They have a keen understanding of the likely outcomes of any conflict and were able to correctly assess the intentions and capabilities of the Russian military. This insight lends credibility to the assertion that a significant portion of the Russian population, whether actively or passively, supports the core tenets that underpin this war.
The reality is that the lack of widespread protest, the continued support for the government’s actions, and the acceptance of the dominant narrative all point to a complex picture. This isn’t to excuse the actions of the Russian government or minimize the suffering inflicted on Ukraine. Rather, this perspective helps us to understand the situation on the ground.
This is not to say that all Russians support the war. It is to acknowledge the complexities. The silent majority may well be afraid, and a large portion of the population may be misled by propaganda.