By Matt Underwood South Korea’s military has shrunk by 20% in six years as the male population drops, and it’s a significant shift with far-reaching implications. The defense forces have been steadily declining since the early 2000s, and this trend has been accelerating in recent years. The primary driver is the shrinking pool of young men eligible for conscription, a consequence of the country’s plummeting birth rate.
Between 2019 and 2025, the population of 20-year-old males, the prime age for military service, has taken a dramatic dip. Government data reveals a staggering 30% decline in this age group. This stark demographic reality is forcing the military to adapt, especially as the mandatory service period has been reduced to 18 months.
This situation isn’t just a numbers game. It reflects deeper societal shifts, including the pressures of work culture. Long hours and a demanding work environment, where after-work socializing is almost expected, leave little time or energy for starting and raising families. This isn’t just a South Korean phenomenon; many developed nations are grappling with negative or low population growth.
Many wonder if the high-income families are choosing to send their kids abroad for education and work, potentially avoiding military service. This strategy isn’t unique to South Korea; it’s also observed in Taiwan. This has forced South Korea to plan for the future by reducing the size of its army and service times. This strategic reduction wasn’t unplanned; it was part of a long-term plan to manage costs and maintain military readiness.
A 2018 Defense White Paper outlined a strategy to reduce troop numbers to 500,000 by 2022. The plan involved transferring personnel from non-combat roles to combat units and filling non-combat positions with civilians. The aim was to maintain combat power despite the reduced size of the army, by leveraging technological advancements like drone combat systems and advanced military gear. The reorganization of the army aimed to enhance its capability to respond to various security threats and conduct rapid, decisive operations.
The shrinking military isn’t just about the number of soldiers. It’s a symptom of a larger demographic crisis facing South Korea. The country’s birth rate is incredibly low, far below the replacement rate needed to sustain the population. This isn’t just a military problem; it affects every aspect of society. Even if there’s a sudden surge in births, the demographic challenges are significant. Mass immigration is often proposed as a solution.
Some suggest that a 4-day work week and a better work-life balance could contribute positively. Others believe that the decline in deployable foot soldiers is not the full picture and that the military’s actual combat capabilities are not necessarily dwindling in a significant manner. The focus on advanced weaponry, like missiles, and the potential of drones, shifts the focus away from the number of soldiers needed, potentially making the overall military force more efficient.
The reduction in troop numbers is happening faster than anticipated. The cohort of men eligible for service in the coming years is shrinking dramatically, making this a pressing issue. Cost of living increases, without corresponding wage growth, add to the challenges. While work culture is a factor, the low birth rate isn’t solely tied to long hours.
This situation is a critical reflection of the problems that many developed nations are experiencing. While long working hours may contribute, they aren’t the primary cause of the low birth rate. This is a complex issue tied to economic factors and societal priorities. The need for fundamental change is clear.
The solution isn’t easy. Mass immigration might offer a temporary fix, but it comes with its own set of complexities. Advancements in humanoid robotics, like those being developed in other developed countries, could offer a way forward. With the aging population and dwindling workforce, the nation will have to put more reliance on AI and drones.