By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Once a region firmly under Moscow’s influence, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are now distancing themselves from Russia. This shift is largely due to Russia’s perceived failure to support Armenia during conflicts with Azerbaijan and its subsequent inability to prevent Azerbaijan from reclaiming territory in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has begun pivoting West, while Azerbaijan strengthens ties with Turkey. This shift is not only impacting Russia’s regional influence, but also cutting off vital channels for sanctions evasion and potentially hampering its war efforts in Ukraine.
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Russia’s power is undoubtedly facing a significant decline in the South Caucasus. The region, historically a point of strategic importance, is witnessing a shift in power dynamics that favors other players. It’s becoming increasingly evident that Russia’s influence is waning, and the countries within the South Caucasus are increasingly charting their own course, often without Moscow’s involvement or blessing.
One of the biggest signs of this decline is Russia’s inability to effectively manage or control ongoing conflicts within the region, especially its handling of the Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute. Russia’s actions, or lack thereof, have been seen as either ineffective or self-serving, eroding trust with its former allies. The narrative is that Russia’s primary concern is always its own interests, even if it means exacerbating existing tensions. This self-serving approach ultimately damages any claim of leadership or stability that Russia might have hoped to project. The fact that they consistently choose conflict is a clear signal.
Moreover, Russia’s declining influence in other regions, such as Central Asia and Syria, further weakens its position in the South Caucasus. If Russia is struggling to maintain its grip in areas where it once held considerable sway, it inevitably undermines its credibility and authority elsewhere. It seems that those countries in the region are more attracted to the influence of China. The inability to provide natural gas and financial support to places like Transnistria is an example of how Russia’s economic weaknesses impact its ability to control territories it technically controls.
The international community is also taking note. The lack of respect that China has for Russia, as demonstrated by the public treatment of Putin by Xi Jinping, underscores the changing global perception. It shows that the international community is increasingly aware of Russia’s diminished status. Similarly, the way Serbia is aligning itself with Russia, based more on words than concrete actions, signifies a lack of confidence in Moscow’s ability to deliver tangible benefits or support.
Russia’s remaining allies are limited and, frankly, in a rather precarious position themselves. Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, and Belarus are all heavily sanctioned countries with economic problems. Their ability to support Russia, both politically and economically, is very limited, and they could abandon Russia in the not-so-distant future. The puppet regime installed in Georgia is not necessarily an asset.
The situation in Armenia provides a telling example of Russia’s deteriorating standing. Despite supposed obligations under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia has been slow to react to Armenia’s security concerns. The Western countries have taken note, with France being the only nation to respond to Armenia’s call for help. The situation in Armenia shows how the “friendship” that Russia boasts about doesn’t exist in reality.
The question of what Putin will do in the face of this decline is a crucial one. Some believe that his diminished power will lead to increased aggression, especially towards Europe. However, it’s important to remember that Russia’s ability to take significant action is likely constrained. Economically and militarily, Russia is increasingly weaker.
It is not likely that Putin is “maintaining domestic control.” There are reports of falling oligarchs, strict internal security measures, and police crackdowns on protests. These things indicate that Putin is not in control. Plus, if Putin were to launch nuclear weapons, the world would likely retaliate.
Putin’s ego may cause him to engage in friction with Europe. It’s a possibility. But the Europeans are waking up and realizing their potential. Putin’s power is slipping, and with that, his ability to influence events in the South Caucasus will continue to shrink, paving the way for new geopolitical alignments and a changed landscape.