By Matt Underwood 
Russian military contract recruitments hit a two-year low, which is a significant development, especially considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Based on the information, the first half of 2025 saw new recruits arriving at a rate that was either at or below the estimated daily loss rate of personnel in Ukraine. That’s a clear indication that the Russian military was struggling to maintain its strength during this period.
This slowdown in recruitment appears to be multifaceted. One of the primary factors seems to be financial constraints. Some regions, like Irkutsk Oblast, have openly cited a lack of funds for contract-signing bonuses, which are often used as an incentive to attract new recruits. It is possible that they are having trouble making ends meet and can no longer offer enticing financial incentives.
Furthermore, the data suggests a lack of transparency. Some regions, such as Vladimir Oblast, stopped publishing recruitment figures entirely after raising bonus payments. This lack of transparency is often a sign that recruitment efforts are not going as planned, and the authorities are trying to conceal the extent of the problem. Running out of money and refusing to disclose figures are bad signs for Russian recruitment.
Extrapolating the data for the second half of 2025, it appears recruitment might have picked up slightly compared to the first half of the year, although the data only covers a short period. But this increase, if it holds, is still significantly lower than the previous year. To put it in perspective, recruitment rates during this period are about 2.5 times lower than last year. This is significant because it highlights that the current recruitment efforts are not even close to what was achieved in previous years, even with the alleged slight increase in the second half of the year.
The reasons behind this decline are complex and potentially include a combination of factors. It’s possible that the initial pools of recruits, such as inmates and ethnic minorities, have been depleted, and recruitment efforts are struggling to find new sources. The article indicates that the previous strategy of targeting inmates and ethnic groups may be running out of steam.
Public perception also seems to be a contributing factor. Reports of soldiers not receiving promised pay, or of unfavorable conditions at the front lines, have likely discouraged potential recruits. It is difficult to ignore what is going on and pretend that the war is going well. It is possible that the word is getting out that the reality of the conflict doesn’t match the rosy picture presented by propaganda.
The situation raises questions about Russia’s long-term military capabilities and its ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine. One of the biggest challenges is that the Russian army has sustained significant losses. The war has exposed the reality of Russia, leading to reputational damage, and making it hard to attract those willing to serve.
The situation is further complicated by the global context. While Russia is facing recruitment challenges, the world is rearming, suggesting a growing demand for military personnel. This increased competition could exacerbate Russia’s difficulties in attracting and retaining soldiers.
The data shows that some American citizens have joined the Russian army. Unfortunately, some of these individuals have had poor experiences, including being sent to the front lines despite promises of different roles. This indicates that it may be very difficult to attract foreign mercenaries and also could be very damaging to the country.
The long-term implications of the decline in Russian military recruitment are significant. It could limit Russia’s ability to conduct military operations and could have broader consequences for the ongoing war in Ukraine.