By Matt Underwood Putin still has no intention of stopping the Ukraine war, and frankly, that’s hardly surprising. It’s become painfully obvious to everyone, except perhaps a few people who seem to live in an alternate reality. From a purely strategic viewpoint, the whole thing seems incredibly counterproductive. It’s hurting his own demographics, depleting his military’s resources, and providing the West with invaluable insights into how the Russian military actually functions. It’s even prompted large countries to rearm, increasing the very threat he supposedly wants to eliminate.
It’s hard to understand the logic behind this, beyond the obvious. It feels like a terrible waste of life, a pointless bloodshed. Really, what would make him stop? The only way this ends is if he gets what he wants: complete control. Short of that, it would require a total and devastating defeat for Russia, one that would force him to surrender. It’s as simple as that. Putin will likely keep pushing until he has no men left, and Russia is bankrupt.
Sadly, the world seems to be lacking in people who are willing to stand up to him and really put an end to this. He has a long game in mind, maybe hoping that the West will fracture and he can then take whatever China will allow him to seize. It’s almost like he’s calculating on the weakness of his opposition, figuring that the fractures and divisions in the West, and the failings of capitalism, will work in his favor.
The fact is, Putin has never intended to stop. He needs to maintain control. He risks losing power if he stops the war. It’s a war economy, and war economies only survive in a constant state of war and aggression. The consequences of a war economy are dire, leading to the collapse of the economy and of the country’s leadership. He will not stop until his goals are reached. He is committed to the war, and changing direction is not something that he can do.
He is an autocrat, and he relies on the projection of strength. He can’t suddenly tell his oligarchs and the Russian people that it didn’t go as planned. This is his personal ambition, and it fuels his actions. Putin won’t stop until Moscow burns. He can’t be seen to be weak and as long as people are afraid of him, he has a degree of power and influence, so the war will not stop.
The only two scenarios that will end this conflict are a Russian military defeat and the liberation of Ukrainian territories, or a Ukrainian surrender accompanied by further concessions. If the West and NATO had intervened decisively in spring 2022, the war might have been over within a month. Now, the situation is complex, and Putin is not going to give up what he has achieved already.
It is clear that this will end either with Putin’s death or with his victory. It’s about his ego, and he is not going to let it go, as he has said time and again. Trump’s belief that he could end the war is a joke and shows he is not someone to be taken seriously when he speaks about these topics.
Any sanctions imposed by the West, if they are properly implemented, can have a significant impact. The impact on Russia’s economy may not be felt immediately, but it is likely that they will be running out of steam by the end of the year. Trump believes Putin is his friend. Putin’s economy cannot take much more, so any new sanctions would be very difficult for him.
Putin is determined to be remembered for his actions. Like historical figures, he wants to be remembered for starting a war and simply keeping going. He won’t stop until he gets what he wants, finds a way to save face, or is ousted.