By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Japan’s population experienced a significant decline in 2024, with almost a million more deaths than births, marking the steepest annual drop since 1968. Births reached a record low of 686,061, while the overall population decreased by 0.44%, primarily impacting the pension and healthcare systems. Despite government efforts to boost birth rates through various incentives and embracing foreign labor, deep-seated cultural and economic challenges, such as high living costs and stagnant wages, continue to hinder progress. With a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce, Japan faces a demographic crisis that will require long-term solutions.
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Japan’s population falling with 900,000 more deaths than births in 2024.
That’s the headline, isn’t it? A staggering number. Losing nearly a million more people than were born in a single year. To put it into perspective, it’s like a quiet war, a slow-motion emergency playing out right before our eyes. Some might even call it a “quiet war,” a war of attrition against the very population itself.
And the underlying reasons are complex. There’s a palpable sense that the world isn’t exactly a welcoming place to raise children anymore. The increasing cost of living, the relentless pace of modern life, and the anxieties about the future – climate change, political instability, technological disruption – all contribute to this feeling. It’s not surprising, really, that many people are choosing not to bring children into this world. It’s a decision that deserves understanding, not judgment.
Many women express that they don’t desire to bear numerous children. Childbirth can be demanding, both physically and medically. In a world full of complexities, families often lean towards having 0-2 children. That’s their choice. And as a species, humanity will have to adapt to that reality. The idea of endless growth was never sustainable anyway.
Beyond that, a life that feels exhausting is the problem. The investment – in time, energy, resources, and money – just to make ends meet leaves little room for the joys and responsibilities of raising a family. Consider those with children. What are their real worries? What are the actual costs? People feel drained and overwhelmed. It’s a legitimate concern.
It’s not about being a pessimist; it’s about being realistic. A sitting president is accused of dangerous, illegal acts and a significant number of people still support him, a world like that is not conducive to raising children. This world, with its climate crisis, rising authoritarianism, the threat of job displacement from AI, the erosion of privacy, and the constant presence of microplastics in our food and water, makes choosing not to have children seem like the most ethical choice.
Some might suggest importing immigrants to solve the problem. But simply importing people isn’t the solution. It can create a whole other set of issues, such as driving up housing costs and depressing wages. The real solution? Focus on what existing Japanese people need to encourage them to have children. Better childcare, affordable housing, reduced work hours, and increased take-home pay – that’s the focus. Governments need to address these underlying problems, not just seek a quick fix.
The narrative that a declining population is inherently bad is debatable. With fewer people, there’s the potential for a higher quality of life for those who remain. Resources become less strained. The pressure on the environment eases. While the issue is having too many old people who aren’t working and need health services. Countries can certainly function with a smaller population.
And, it is a social issue. People are shamed for having kids. This social problem of “judgement” for wanting to be a parent will not change with policy.
But how does Japan deal with this decline? Well, for one, they appear hesitant about immigration. Some people in Japan seem to believe that banning foreigners is the solution, but is it? They are facing the same issue as South Korea, China, and other countries in the region: a demographic crisis stemming from low birth rates and an unwillingness to embrace immigration.
So where does the solution lie? Some suggest increasing immigration. Others advocate for policy changes to encourage more births, such as affordable childcare and better housing. Ultimately, the solutions are complex and will require a multi-faceted approach that addresses the underlying reasons why people are choosing not to have children in the first place. It’s a problem that is far from unique to Japan. The entire far east, and indeed much of the world, is facing this challenge, and the future belongs to those who can navigate this demographic shift successfully. The next century may very well belong to those who can prevent their countries from entering a deep social crisis.