By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The article compares President Trump’s response to disappointing jobs reports to smashing a bathroom scale in an attempt to obscure weight gain. After revised estimates showed a significant downturn in job growth, Trump responded by attempting to intimidate the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which the author argues is a futile gesture. While this tactic might briefly fool some voters, the author asserts that voters will ultimately rely on their personal economic experiences, rendering manipulated statistics ineffective. The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of reliable economic data for market activity, social science, and sound economic policy, suggesting that Trump should instead focus on correcting course.
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Firing the statistician won’t change the job numbers, at least not in any meaningful way. The whole idea of trying to manipulate these figures is a fascinating, and frankly, predictable, aspect of political maneuvering. We’ve seen this script before. The thought process seems to be: if the numbers don’t look good, just replace the person who’s *telling* us about the numbers with someone who will tell a different story.
The expectation is that the replacement will simply manufacture the desired figures. One can easily imagine a scenario where the official reports suddenly start showing incredibly low unemployment rates and massive job gains. The numbers could become “absolutely amazing,” as some might say. But the real question is, will this really change anything?
The answer, unfortunately, is no. While the official reports might be altered, the truth of the situation remains. The reality is that people will experience the economy directly. Are wages increasing? Are people being laid off? How easy is it to find a new job if necessary? These are the questions people will ask themselves, and if their own experiences don’t align with the rosy picture painted by the official figures, then the official figures lose their meaning. The numbers become just another source of manufactured reality.
One of the main challenges with such a strategy is that a lot of people are involved in generating those official numbers. As one economist pointed out, a complete overhaul of the entire process wouldn’t be easy, to say the least. It’s not just one person crunching the data; there’s a whole system in place. Trying to completely manipulate that system would likely require mass firings and replacements, which, of course, would send a very clear message about the expectation of loyalty.
And let’s be honest, even if someone managed to “cook the books,” as some might call it, there’s a limit to how far they can go. Voters are not stupid. They will eventually realize that the official narrative doesn’t match their own lives. If the economy is truly struggling, no amount of fabricated data will change that. People can’t eat statistics, and they can’t pay the rent with them either.
It’s also important to remember that there are other sources of economic data. Private sector reports, for example, will continue to paint a picture of reality. So, even if the official figures are altered, the truth will still be out there. The financial markets will also react based on the underlying economic conditions, not necessarily on manufactured numbers. This is the ultimate test of any government’s strategy, as economic fundamentals will eventually prevail.
This whole situation brings to mind the saying, “You can’t change reality.” Sure, you can try to manipulate the numbers to create a different narrative, but it won’t change the underlying economic facts. The real question, of course, is why anyone would think this strategy would work. Perhaps it is a matter of desperation, a belief that if a lie is repeated often enough, it will become the truth.
As many others have noted, the historical record is full of examples where trying to cover up the truth has only made things worse. The truth always comes out. Perhaps this is why the effort seems so futile. It might change the numbers in the short run, but the longer-term consequences of trying to deceive the public are far more damaging. In the end, people will see what they see, and experience what they experience, regardless of what the official numbers might say.
The situation underscores a broader trend of distrust in institutions. If people lose faith in official statistics, they’re also likely to lose faith in the government, its policies, and its leaders. This is the real danger of trying to manipulate numbers. It’s a risky game, one that may offer a temporary boost in public perception, but ultimately could erode the very foundations of trust.