By John Q. Hosedrinker 
As Western sanctions cripple Russia’s aviation sector, Moscow is seeking partnerships with African nations, particularly Ethiopian Airlines. Russian officials have proposed a cooperation package with the Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority, including wet-leasing aircraft and supplying aviation equipment. This move comes after a 2024 agreement expanded aviation ties, as Russia’s aging fleet faces maintenance challenges. While this partnership could help Russia circumvent sanctions and boost Ethiopia’s aviation ambitions, it may lead to diplomatic scrutiny.
Read the original article here
Russia Turns to Ethiopian Airlines for Aircraft Amid Western Sanctions, and it’s quite a story unfolding in the world of aviation. It’s hard not to ponder the current state of Russian aviation, especially considering the impact of international sanctions. At the outset of these sanctions, we saw Russia essentially “borrow” a large number of aircraft, the question now becomes, how many of those planes are actually still safe to fly? It’s a complex question, isn’t it, with a variety of factors to consider.
What’s truly interesting is the reported potential for Ethiopian Airlines to enter into a leasing agreement with Russian airlines. After everything that has happened with the aircraft “borrowing” at the beginning of the war, this seems like a very bold move. One can’t help but wonder about the potential repercussions, including being blacklisted, especially if they become too involved.
Of course, the question of insurance for these aircraft becomes incredibly pertinent. Who would be willing to take on the risk, given the uncertain maintenance histories and the potential for violating international sanctions? It’s a very big question mark and one that would have to be addressed before such a lease could go forward.
The obvious response from the West would likely be to restrict the sale of spare parts to Ethiopian Airlines. Also any aircraft registered in Ethiopia, as they are potentially in the wrong hands. This would be a huge blow to the airline industry.
The situation puts Ethiopian Airlines in a very precarious position. They are one of Africa’s fastest-growing and most respected airlines. Would they risk jeopardizing their expansion plans and landing themselves in the same sanctioning category as Russia? They wouldn’t want to risk losing access to western airspace and curtailing their chances of becoming a major player in the global airline industry.
Considering Ethiopian Airlines’ position as a leading airline in Africa, the potential deal with Russia seems like a significant gamble. It’s almost like lending your car to a known car thief. What could go wrong indeed?
You have to wonder what kind of maintenance these planes are receiving, especially with sanctions limiting access to Western parts. In Russia, “airworthy” might have a different definition, perhaps centered on the plane’s ability to take off. Safe landing, however, is not guaranteed.
It’s true that most, if not all, of those borrowed planes, are technically not airworthy. We’re talking about aircraft potentially lacking proper maintenance records, with parts of unknown origin. It has likely been years since the last proper maintenance, and all anyone can do is look at the plane and hope for the best. It is not like they can get new parts. It’s a sad situation.
However, it is not a certainty that Ethiopian Airlines will be banned from Western airspace. Several airlines from other regions are expanding in both the EU and Russia with seemingly little pushback. Also, the type of agreement matters, and it’s reported that this is a wet lease, meaning Ethiopian Airlines would continue to operate the planes. There is a big difference.
There’s also the fact that Russia might eventually pay for the use of these aircraft, though the details of such payments would be crucial. At any rate, the Russian fleet will have a difficult time operating, as the spare parts will have to come from somewhere, like China.
One has to wonder, what is really happening with these planes? Many of the aircraft will need to be cannibalized for parts, and as the planes become unusable, they will be broken down for parts.
Operating within Russia and wet-leasing aircraft to Russia are different levels of involvement. While the wet-leasing option may not directly violate sanctions, the risk of indirect violations is present.
Ethiopian Airlines currently flies to/from numerous NATO, EU, and other European nations, Canada, and the US. It is a risky proposition to purposefully jeopardize such landing rights. It would probably also cause a decrease in total ticket revenues. The risk would involve the future leasing or re-sale of their jets to accommodate Putin’s request. If unauthorized parts are used, the airline could be grounded in much of the world.
This situation illustrates the overall Russian economy. The system appears to be held together by a combination of cannibalization, and a focus on using local methods. This situation will continue until the components are all used up.
Eventually, the Russian airlines will be flying but will probably be using turboprops with a significant reduction in flights. The overall impact is significant.
The focus of sanctions is on limiting Russia’s access to key components. Airlines from other countries are also not targeted in this manner. It is a complicated situation where various factors come into play. Sanctions or not, some airlines are still operating in the region.