By John Q. Hosedrinker 
China has expressed its hope that all parties involved in the Russia-Ukraine war will participate in peace negotiations, as former U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Beijing, a key strategic partner of Russia, has been providing significant economic support to Moscow, helping it circumvent Western sanctions. The summit will address the control of Ukrainian territory seized by Russia, with Kyiv and its allies urging Trump not to concede any land. China supports efforts toward a peaceful settlement and hopes to see a fair and lasting agreement reached.
Read the original article here
China reacts to the potential Trump-Putin meeting without Ukraine and the EU with a complex mix of apprehension and strategic calculation. The underlying sentiment, it seems, is one of concern, primarily rooted in the potential reshaping of global power dynamics. China’s strategic interests are intrinsically tied to a multipolar world, where no single nation or bloc of nations can exert absolute dominance. The prospect of a US-Russia alliance, even a temporary or superficial one, sends shivers down the spine of Chinese strategists. Such a partnership would effectively box in China, creating a formidable coalition to its north, east, and west.
The idea of Russia and the US joining forces is viewed as a geopolitical disaster for China. This potential alliance is not just about military might. It is about the combined economic and diplomatic leverage these two powers could bring to bear on the global stage. China’s economic growth, its Belt and Road Initiative, and its increasing influence in international organizations all rely on a degree of global stability and the absence of a unified front against it. A US-Russia partnership, even one built on shaky foundations, would undermine this stability, creating an environment of heightened competition and potentially limiting China’s expansion.
China, as a major stakeholder, clearly wants a ceasefire in Ukraine. However, the exclusion of Ukraine and the EU from these potential discussions is concerning. The very act of holding such a summit without the direct involvement of those most affected raises suspicions. China understands that leaving Ukraine out of peace talks, and the EU too, will be seen as a mockery. The perception of the meeting as an attempt to settle matters without genuine consideration for the affected parties only deepens China’s unease. China would prefer a negotiated settlement.
The focus shifts to Taiwan, a perennial point of tension between China and the US. Many believe the meeting is about something other than Ukraine. Some believe the China might be considering an invasion of Taiwan. The timing is considered crucial. If China makes its move when Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine and depleted, it will likely face the US alone. The implication is clear: China needs to navigate the Ukrainian crisis carefully to create the most advantageous strategic position for itself.
This is where the dynamics become even more complex. China also understands the importance of not being caught in a situation where it has to directly confront the US. This is what is driving its more cautious approach. China cannot afford a hostile alliance, but it is equally important to not see Europe and the US combine their resources to support Taiwan. China wants to stay in the middle.
China’s diplomatic strategy is often described as subtle, saying very little with many words. This carefully measured approach is no coincidence. The aim is to avoid direct confrontation while still pursuing China’s strategic interests. The silence surrounding the meeting also reflects the complex web of relationships that are in play. China’s relationship with Russia is built on a long history of a shared sense of security. However, China’s economic reliance on the EU and its interest in global stability also pulls it towards the West. China wants to be seen as a reliable partner, a neutral party dedicated to peaceful resolutions.
The exclusion of the EU from these discussions further complicates the situation. The EU is a major economic partner and a potential ally for China. It is also a staunch supporter of Ukraine. China must balance its relationship with Russia with its desire for a stable and prosperous Europe. China may be considering the prospect of cozying up to the EU to strike some trade deals. However, China has found itself on an increasingly challenging diplomatic tightrope walk.
In essence, China’s reaction to the Trump-Putin meeting is characterized by a mixture of strategic calculation, diplomatic caution, and underlying concern. The potential for a US-Russia alliance is a clear threat. The exclusion of Ukraine and the EU is a source of worry. The focus on Taiwan is the primary concern. China’s actions will be guided by the need to navigate these complexities, protect its interests, and maintain its position as a major player on the global stage.