By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Germany and the United States have jointly agreed to supply Ukraine with five Patriot air defense systems, according to Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. The agreement was reached amidst an increase in Russian long-range strikes, including ballistic missiles that the Patriot system can counter. This announcement follows previous commitments from the US and other allies like Norway, all of which aim to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses. The systems are crucial for protecting against large-scale attacks, as Russia intensifies its offensive with both drone and missile strikes.
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US and Germany agree to deliver five Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, Berlin says, a significant development that’s definitely worth unpacking. This commitment marks a crucial step in bolstering Ukraine’s defenses, especially given the ongoing conflict and the relentless attacks the country has endured. Five Patriot systems, while a substantial contribution, immediately sparks thoughts about the scale of the need.
Each Patriot system, it’s worth emphasizing, is equipped with six launchers. That’s a lot of potential firepower, and it highlights the gravity of the situation. Originally, the intention was for a larger number, but the final count settled on five. This adjustment, and any delays in delivery, will certainly raise concerns. As some have pointed out, the replacements need to be in place before the existing systems are handed over. This is a prudent approach to ensure that any gaps in defense capabilities are minimized.
When thinking about how many missiles are actually needed, we should consider what is required to effectively defend against the range of threats. Missiles such as PAC-2 and PAC-3 need to be in abundance. Given the potential for ballistic missile barrages, and the fact that manufacturing capabilities could be targeted, there’s a strong argument for local manufacturing and establishing underground bunkers. The current production capacity for missiles, even from a major manufacturer like Lockheed Martin, seems insufficient to meet Ukraine’s ongoing requirements. That manufacturer can only produce around 500 per year. And if production is strained, we have to consider the cost of the missiles, which can be quite significant – around $2 million per missile.
Consider the practical aspect of defense, and the reality on the ground. We know that a Patriot system, however effective, can only fire one missile at a time. So, the attacker’s strategy will rely on overwhelming defenses with a barrage of incoming missiles, and requires the defenders to respond quickly. The need for a constant supply of missiles to the front line is paramount. The faster you can reload and the more missiles you can deploy, the better the chances of repelling attacks and protecting assets.
Of course, there are larger geopolitical factors at play. China’s continued supply of arms to Russia, for example, introduces complexities. China’s position as a supposedly “reliable and stable partner” raises questions, particularly given its indirect support for the conflict. And while the West is sending arms to Ukraine, it is simultaneously importing resources from Russia. The same applies to the EU.
Looking at the numbers, it’s clear that the aid provided to Ukraine is significantly greater than the imports from Russia. However, the EU’s financial contributions to Russia via resource purchases are, no doubt, fueling the very war it seeks to end. This inconsistency fuels the narrative that certain nations are not fully committed to the Ukrainian cause. Cutting off all trade with Russia might be logical, but it’s a move that could come at a cost. Rising gas prices are a constant worry for politicians, and will impact their popularity.
It’s easy to understand why Putin may be reluctant to end the war. He’s invested heavily in the conflict, disregarding significant Russian losses in the hope of some form of victory. The US commitment to Ukraine is clear, with President Biden playing his part. But the perception that support is conditional, or that certain nations are reluctant to provide offensive weapons, can only undermine the overall effect.
The situation in Ukraine is complex, and there are many factors at play. One important detail is Germany’s contribution. It had around nine Patriot systems before the war, and has transferred a significant number to Ukraine. The need for these systems is pressing, especially given the relentless attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. However, the replacements, and the speed with which they arrive, will influence the overall effectiveness of Ukraine’s defenses.
The fact that Russia has been fighting for three years without significant gains emphasizes the urgent need for decisive action. The goal is to make it impossible for Putin to declare victory, and to push him towards the negotiating table. The continued provision of military aid, along with other forms of assistance, should have a cumulative effect. Ultimately, the success of this mission hinges on a number of variables, including the timely delivery of crucial equipment like the Patriot systems, and the global political will to hold Russia accountable.