By Matt Underwood Ukraine catches Chinese spies trying to steal secrets of missile that sank Russia’s flagship – it’s a story that, frankly, isn’t all that shocking, is it? When a nation is fighting for its very existence, and the world watches in a frenzy, you’d think spies would have a lot better sense than to try to sneak around. The risks are astronomically high in a situation like this. It’s not exactly a subtle game. You have to wonder about the intelligence of the people involved.
And what’s the first secret to anti-ship missiles that can sink flagships? Well, if the Moskva is any indicator, it seems like firing them at Russian flagships is a pretty solid start. What’s truly puzzling is China’s apparent recent strategy of making enemies in Europe. They seem to be burning bridges left and right. There was the comment from China’s Foreign Minister, almost lamenting a potential Russian loss in Ukraine. Then, a Chinese ship harassing a German plane. And now this? It’s classic Chinese R&D: copy, steal, and try to replicate. Where is the ingenuity and innovation? The Neptune missile, the target of this espionage attempt, isn’t even all that revolutionary. It’s a pretty standard design for a modern anti-ship missile (AShM). You’ve got to wonder what they hoped to gain!
It’s important to remember that the Moskva’s sinking wasn’t solely down to a super-secret Ukrainian innovation. Intelligence reports suggest the ship was in pretty poor shape. Key components of its air defense system were apparently not functioning. I suspect this is one of those situations where the ship’s own shortcomings contributed to its demise. That said, to deny Ukrainian engineers’ abilities to build some impressive weapons is a mistake. It reminds of the early days of China’s own technological rise, and their fascination for what they saw and felt was valuable.
The fact is, China’s relentless espionage game is a very real threat. Other nations must take steps to ensure their national security. Revoking the visas of all Chinese citizens is a drastic step, but China has proven it is willing to commit this type of espionage and these security risks should be considered. It’s almost comical how easy it is to see their fingerprints on this operation. It’s a clear reminder that China doesn’t stand with Ukraine, or with liberal democracies.
As this saga unfolds, remember that China is closely scrutinizing the war in Ukraine. They are undoubtedly using the lessons learned to inform their own military strategies, especially those concerning Taiwan. Could they have thought they’d be unnoticed? One of the spies was expelled from Kyiv University for, of all things, poor grades. Spies aren’t known for their academic prowess, and perhaps that was by design. I’ll just leave that thought right there.
The trade-off of secrets with Putin could bring more blood and oil to the equation. The question is: are we looking at actual cutting-edge technology, or one of Ukraine’s ingenious, almost MacGyver-esque creations, whose secrets are more in the realm of “it just works,” held together by a little duct tape and a lot of ingenuity? Also, the fact that the spy was selling scraps of the weapon for souvenirs on second-hand trading sites. This is just, wow!
And, let’s not forget, the alleged stolen tech is a subsonic 300 km range missile. I would argue this would be well below China’s export version of GPS-guided rockets, which generally exceed 400km range. While the intent might be the same, the value is in the details, and the real secret is offline radar and that’s just the first layer of the onion.
The truth is, Ukraine doesn’t necessarily have a vast trove of tech that’s worth stealing. They have their turbine engines, but even that is gradually out of favor. China is moving quickly, and Ukraine expressed hostility over the tech transfer more than 10 years ago, bankrupting some Chinese companies with its government intervention, after deals were done. However, CCP’s relentless global espionage should have all countries, especially European and Western countries, revoking all visas held by Chinese citizens. China has proven over and over that it’s citizens can not be trusted under any circumstance and represent serious national security threats wherever they travel. They are so easy to spot. How could they let them try to spy ?
The punishments for spies are worth noting. While in some cases, the death penalty is on the table, and China might say death penalty to spies, in the real world, spies are valuable assets. They can be traded for your own captured personnel. Foreign spies are usually exchanged for your own spies that have been caught. In this case, it was 15 years in prison. Also at least 2 Chinese ships were accused of anchor dragging incidents, The Yi Peng 3 2024 and Newnew Polar Bear 2023. Latter was confirmed but accidental according to Chinese authorities.
Authoritarians and dictators tend to stick together, especially against the free world. China believes in its own supremacy and its rise is being achieved through questionable methods. They are catching up quickly. You might even say, “It’s working.”
But of course, stealing technology and military secrets has been a part of the game forever. From gunpowder to firearms originating in China. The Egyptians copied the Hyksos’ chariots. Rome copied Carthage’s ship designs. The US and Soviets scooped up German scientists after WWII. Why wouldn’t you try to take advantage of what your enemy has? Every nation steals in weapons R&D. This is nothing new.
In the weapons space, if someone is trying to get your plans, you’re doing something right. It means you’ve built a capable piece of kit. What is truly secret are often the seeker head and electronics that guide the missile to its target.
It’s all about the details. Radar, optical or infrared terminal guidance. GPS or another satellite system? Course correction data from the launcher? Jammable frequencies? Any known weaknesses? That’s the valuable intel. So, let’s see how it continues. There is still the small “what if”.