By Matt Underwood Russia’s oil smugglers are running out of ocean as UK freezes 100+ shadow fleet tankers, a situation that marks a significant escalation in the international effort to curb Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. It’s excellent news, really. The aim is to pile on more sanctions, aiming to cripple Russia’s ability to fund its military operations. It’s heartening to see other countries potentially joining the movement. The strategy appears to be multifaceted, encompassing specific ships and the broader financial networks supporting them.
The approach seems to be targeting these so-called “grey fleet” vessels, which have been operating with little to no oversight, making it harder to track their movements and ownership. These ships often switch off their tracking transponders to hide their activities. The idea behind these sanctions is to make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for these vessels to operate and find ports willing to accept their cargo, effectively cutting off their ability to transport Russian oil. The current targets are specific ships, but the underlying aim may be to impact the entire system.
While there’s discussion of more drastic measures, like allowing the seizure of these tankers, the main approach is to make it too risky for them to operate. This will likely include targeting insurance companies, tightening up security, particularly in areas where these ships operate, such as the Danish Straits. The long-term goal is to make it so expensive to transport Russian oil that it becomes economically unviable.
However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of sanctions, with evidence suggesting the “grey fleet” has grown substantially, increasing the number of tankers involved in illicit oil trade. The ability to quickly change flags, or switch between countries and turn off transponders and hide is also something that makes it hard to crack down on these vessels. The focus needs to be on not just individual ships but also the networks that support them. It’s an ongoing battle of wits, where the smugglers constantly seek ways to evade restrictions.
There are also concerns about the ecological damage and the risks of confronting these vessels head-on. The strategic use of cruise missiles and the ability to monitor the Baltic Sea through patrol boats, planes, and drones offer alternative approaches. The discussion on allowing Ukraine to seize the ships, or providing them with ‘letters of marque’ could enable them to legally challenge and detain vessels carrying Russian oil.
The definition of “smuggle” in this context is straightforward: moving oil in a manner that violates international trade laws and sanctions, particularly without paying the appropriate duties. The current strategy involves hitting the specific vessels involved, and this can change things. The aim is not just to prevent the ships from operating but also to increase the costs for Russia and make it harder for them to find willing partners in this illegal trade.
Ultimately, the success of these efforts hinges on sustained international cooperation. It requires a coordinated effort to identify, track, and penalize those involved in the illicit trade. And it takes time for these measures to fully take effect. They’re designed to gradually squeeze the flow of funds to Russia’s war machine.