By John Q. Hosedrinker South Korea saw a notable increase in births in May, with a 3.8% rise from the previous year, reaching the highest May increase since 2011. This marks the second consecutive month births surpassed 20,000 and the 11th straight month of on-year growth. A significant rise in marriages, up 4% in May, contributed to the increase, influencing a rise in the country’s fertility rate. Despite the positive trend, the country still faces a natural population decline due to more deaths than births, a pattern observed since late 2019, while divorces decreased.
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S. Korea sees 14-year high rate of growth in births for May as births continue to rise for 11 months straight, a headline that sparks both cautious optimism and careful consideration. The recent data reveals a significant uptick in births for the month of May, marking a 14-year high in the rate of growth. This positive trend extends further, with births continuously rising for the past eleven months, a welcome development in a nation grappling with a declining birth rate.
The most important aspect of this situation, perhaps, is the broader context. While the birth rate is showing improvement, the number of deaths in May remained largely unchanged from the previous year, leaving a natural population decline of over 8,000 people. Based on this data, it is estimated that it would take over a century for births to reach a rate of replacement, making this a long-term challenge.
Despite the positive momentum, there are reasons to pause. The number of monthly births appears to be stabilizing, hovering between 20,000 and 21,000, which translates to a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of around 0.77 to 0.8. Furthermore, there’s a concerning trend of a decreasing rate of women having second and third children, although this may be correlated with the marriage rate’s earlier decline.
However, there is a sense of hope because the marriage rate is increasing for 14 consecutive months, and the ratio of births to marriages is spiking. This could indicate that each marriage is likely to result in at least one birth. It typically takes about 1.5 years for a newly married couple to have their first child, so a significant increase in the birth rate may be seen within the next six months. Failure to dramatically improve this rate may mean a major problem in the future.
One of the key factors contributing to the rise in births is the growing number of women in their early 30s. However, the Statistics Bureau had anticipated a TFR of 0.68 to 0.7 in 2024 and 0.65 in 2025. The actual TFR in 2024 was 0.75 and around 0.80 so far in 2025, meaning the growing population of women aged 30-35 is not the main driver of the increase.
Academia is now suggesting multiple factors, including the growing number of women in their 30s to women expressing a greater desire for marriage, likely influenced by evolving social media trends. It is thought that this is corroborated by government studies showing a rise in the number of women in their 20s expressing a desire to marry. Furthermore, there is increased government intervention in the market to help boost birth rates.
Government policies play a significant role. These policies include programs like “신혼부부 전용 주택구입자금 대출” providing financial assistance, such as sub-basal interest rates for newly married couples. There are also improved parental leave policies for children under 18 months old and increased subsidies for parents with children under 2. Local governments, such as Incheon, provide additional financial support for raising children. Additionally, after-school childcare programs are increasing.
This is no doubt an important step. Nevertheless, there is the potential for the birth rate to recover enough to bring real change. The problem is that the population is aging, and the effects of previous years of low birth rates are beginning to really show. The situation requires continued positive trends in the birth rate to ensure economic stability.
Looking beyond the immediate, it’s important to consider the long-term implications of population trends. While population decline isn’t inherently problematic, the aging population is. The government may have come to terms with a TFR of 2.1. It’s worth thinking about how to mitigate the effects of demographic shifts and establish systems for this new era. Immigration can also have a positive impact.
The hope is that factors which can stimulate population growth will eventually prevail. Although an aging population is a significant obstacle to overcome, its impact may not be insurmountable indefinitely. Japan, for example, saw an increase in births during the 2010s. However, it is important to note that the trend will most likely continue to decline in the future, as South Korea has very likely reached a point of no return.