By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Following last week’s devastating floods that claimed over 100 lives in central Texas, more flash flooding is forecasted for the region. Heavy rainfall, with some areas receiving up to 10 inches in 24 hours, has caused rivers like the Lampasas and San Saba to surge, reaching Major Flood Stage. Flash flood warnings are in effect for multiple cities, and the National Weather Service warns of ongoing or imminent flooding, particularly in Llano County. Rescue efforts are underway with a focus on saving lives as the situation remains dangerous.
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The search for victims has been suspended as Central Texas braces itself for the looming threat of more flash flooding. This is a truly catastrophic situation, underscored by the fact that even the rescuers themselves needed rescuing from the relentless downpour. The “once in a thousand year” claim, as it often does, is proving to be tragically inaccurate.
The Lampasas River, a vital artery through several Central Texas counties, has surged over 30 feet in a mere five hours, breaching major flood stage. Similarly, the San Saba River near San Saba is also predicted to reach major flood stage, potentially cresting around 30 feet on Sunday night. The intensity of this rapid rise is terrifying, making any rescue efforts incredibly dangerous, if not impossible. The only recourse in such a situation is to prioritize getting everyone to safety.
The National Weather Service’s warnings of ongoing and imminent flooding in northern Llano and Burnet counties highlight the urgency and severity of the situation. The rapid rise of multiple rivers over such a short period highlights how unprepared the current infrastructure is. The underlying reality of climate change and its impacts, with rising temperatures and more extreme weather events, has become increasingly evident. It is a situation which has been ignored for years.
The potential for disaster is compounded by the fact that the storms are becoming more frequent. This doesn’t mean there were never epic storms, but that they are more frequent now and that what was once small storms has morphed into medium-sized storms that occur over a season. The probability assessments regarding these types of events are often misunderstood; the so-called “thousand-year flood” isn’t a cyclical event, but rather a statistical probability. However, because of climate change, this is no longer the case.
Beyond the immediate crisis, the long-term consequences of these events demand attention. The lack of foresight in flood plain management, including the repeated construction of buildings in high-risk zones, is a glaring issue. Even though there have been warnings, nothing has been done. The fact that these events are occurring with increased frequency should be a wake-up call. Ignoring scientific evidence and dismissing the concerns of experts only contributes to these tragic outcomes.
The tragic irony is that this is not a new phenomenon. In the past, the same rivers in the same areas have flooded. This is where the phrase “once in a thousand years” is often misinterpreted. It’s essential to understand that the probability of such events is not evenly distributed over time. The actual risk is based on the rising temperatures, the changes in our atmosphere, and the sea levels.
The inadequacy of existing infrastructure further exacerbates the problem. Drainage systems designed for lower-intensity storms are overwhelmed, and the lack of maintenance, including dredging drainage ponds and addressing litter and debris, worsens the situation. Combine this with a drainage infrastructure that is not working upstream and has created concrete flumes which simply channel more water into the river during storms.
The failure to adapt and prioritize safety over other concerns is a recurring theme. The situation in Central Texas is a stark reminder of the importance of taking preventative measures and building in the knowledge of the dangers surrounding the area.
It’s crucial to remember that the responsibility for these tragedies lies not with any particular political party, but in the collective failure to act and address the underlying causes, including climate change. It’s important to remember that red states are not monolithic. In the face of disaster, the most important thing is to focus on the immediate safety of the people and find a sustainable solution for the future.