By John Q. Hosedrinker 
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte suggests that if China were to attack Taiwan, Beijing would likely enlist Moscow’s help to keep NATO occupied by opening a second front in Europe. This potential scenario, spurred by escalating fears since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlights the need for a strong NATO alliance to deter such actions. The increasing Russian military expenditures and ongoing aggression against Ukraine underscore the urgency for NATO allies to accelerate defense investments. Rutte’s warning emphasizes the importance of immediate action to address Russia’s potential military buildup.
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China may ask Russia to attack NATO if Taiwan is invaded, Rutte says. Okay, so let’s unpack this whole thing, shall we? The initial reaction, and it’s a common one, is that this sounds like the opening act of World War III. The idea is that if China invades Taiwan, and Russia, at China’s behest, attacks NATO, we’re looking at a global conflict. The U.S. would likely be directly involved with China, Japan could be pulled in, and the Korean peninsula might be drawn into the chaos too. It’s a domino effect that could be catastrophic, with the grim specter of nuclear war hanging over everything.
A lot of people are calling this a “stupid take,” and honestly, it’s easy to see why. Russia is struggling mightily in Ukraine, and the suggestion that they’d open a second, significantly more dangerous front against NATO seems ludicrous. We’re talking about an alliance with a military that’s vastly superior to anything Russia can muster. There’s a strong sentiment that Russia would be annihilated, decimated in weeks. And let’s be real, why would Russia risk everything for China? What’s in it for them, especially if it means their own destruction?
There is no doubt that China wants the US occupied elsewhere if they go for Taiwan. However, many people think that the idea of Russia going to war with NATO is simply unrealistic. Russia doesn’t seem to prioritize helping its allies, and they’re clearly not doing so well in Ukraine. This paints a picture of a Russian military that’s severely overstretched and unlikely to engage in another major conflict.
This brings up a lot of questions: What is NATO going to do if China invades Taiwan, regardless of what Russia’s doing? What if the US is occupied elsewhere? Is the US obligated to protect Taiwan if attacked? The question of the US’s role is complicated. Some commenters are less than confident in the US commitment to the region.
There’s also a healthy dose of skepticism about the motivations of those making these claims. Some believe that Rutte may have ulterior motives. The comments suggest that the tone of these headlines are often sensationalist, using words like “may” and “might” to create alarm rather than provide concrete news. Some believe that Rutte is playing into the narrative to create fear and possibly influence policy.
The scenario itself seems flawed. Russia doesn’t have the resources to take on NATO. They’re already running low on equipment and struggling in Ukraine, and some of the comments even go so far as to joke that Poland could defeat Russia on its own. The logistics of Russia launching a full-scale attack against NATO are simply beyond their capabilities.
The argument that Russia might be incentivized by old Soviet equipment from China falls flat when Russia is starting to roll out old T-62s and T-55s. Unless China lends them additional armor, it’s very unlikely.
There is the possibility that China would try to leverage Russian nukes. China could potentially use the threat of these weapons for leverage. This is one of the more disturbing and believable implications. It speaks to the potential escalation in the event of a conflict and the chilling consequences that could follow.
However, while some dismiss the scenario out of hand, there’s also a sense that the threat of China invading Taiwan is very real. With this in mind, if Russia were to attack a NATO member, they would face a forceful and unified response. The US has massive defense budgets and capabilities specifically to counter a scenario like this.
The conversation then turns to the fact that the US might be less prepared to fight a war with China than previously thought. If NATO got into a war with Russia and Russia managed to grind it out through attrition, NATO may not be able to sustain itself.