By John Q. Hosedrinker 
A Russia-appointed official in Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk region announced that Moscow’s forces have seized the entire region. This would mark the first Ukrainian region fully occupied by Russia after more than three years of war, as recent international peace efforts have stalled. Concurrently, the top German diplomat visited Kyiv, stating Germany’s intention to assist Ukraine in manufacturing weapons to strengthen its negotiating position. These events occurred amidst ongoing Russian aerial attacks, including a major weekend assault, and are part of a larger strategy to pressure Ukraine.
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Russia says Moscow now occupies all of Ukraine’s Luhansk region, illegally annexed in 2022, and the news brings to mind a complex array of reactions, doesn’t it? It’s a statement that initially appears definitive, a proclamation of complete control over a region that’s been a focal point of conflict for years. However, upon closer examination, the narrative unravels, revealing a story far more nuanced and, frankly, bizarre. It’s like watching a magician pull a rabbit out of a hat, except the rabbit is a long-contested piece of land, and the magic trick has been a grueling three-year war.
This claim of complete control is especially interesting considering Russia already declared it had nearly total control back in June 2022. It makes you wonder about the actual progress on the ground. Some estimate that the Russians only gained an additional couple of percentage points of territory in the last three years, which, given the cost in human lives and resources, seems a terrible price to pay for such a marginal gain. This begs the question: Is it truly a victory if it’s come at such a devastating cost?
The geography of Luhansk, largely flat farmland, also makes you pause and consider. If the terrain offered minimal natural defenses and the population wasn’t particularly dense, shouldn’t the conquest have been swifter and less costly? The fact that it took Russia three years, and countless casualties, suggests an incredible degree of struggle. It’s a sobering reminder of the reality of this conflict, which is far from a swift, decisive victory.
Many of us are already aware that independent assessments paint a different picture. Numerous online maps and other sources are showing that the claim of complete control is an exaggeration, at best. It’s a stark contrast to the triumphant pronouncements from Moscow and it’s hard to shake the feeling that this is just propaganda. It is easy to see through these claims.
The context is crucial, too. Russia’s actions in Luhansk and Donetsk began in 2014. This recent declaration of “full control” only serves to highlight the illegal annexation, and the years of occupation that have come before it. This ongoing power grab is just one part of a much larger and longer story.
Given the costs, the resources expended, and the human suffering, it’s hard to see this as anything other than a self-inflicted wound for Russia. The war has severely damaged its military capabilities, its economy, and its international standing. As a few people have said, it’s a triumph they can’t afford. The idea of “victory” here seems hollow, particularly if the land is essentially a bombed-out wasteland, if it’s achieved through ethnic cleansing, or both.
And then there’s the question of what happens now. Occupying land is one thing; holding onto it is another. This may lead to prolonged conflict with resistance groups, a kind of insurgency that drags on. The declaration of total control seems premature, especially if the territory remains unstable.
The motivations behind this announcement are worth considering too. Is it to boost morale? To send a message to the West? Whatever the reason, the claim of “complete control” is unlikely to change the fundamental reality of the situation. As one person aptly put it, Russia can occupy as much land as it wants, but that doesn’t make it theirs. It’s a statement of intent rather than a reflection of the actual situation on the ground.
Finally, it’s important to remember that the focus should always be on supporting Ukraine and understanding the complexities of the situation. Focusing solely on Russia’s failures might lead to underestimating the enemy. It can be tempting to downplay the threat, to believe that time is on Ukraine’s side. However, a more realistic assessment of the risks and challenges is necessary to develop sound strategies.