By John Q. Hosedrinker 
With the White House’s focus shifting toward the Middle East, Russia has intensified its military operations in Ukraine, seizing more territory in June than in previous months. Experts suggest this increased aggression, particularly around Sumy, may be a strategic move to strengthen Russia’s position in potential peace talks. Moscow aims to secure control over regions it claims, including Crimea and the Donbas, as potential bargaining chips. Despite suffering losses, Russia appears to be leveraging its manpower to achieve incremental territorial gains, while Ukraine is struggling to effectively counter these advances.
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While the world watches Iran, Putin is indeed making headway in Ukraine, though at a staggering cost. Recent reports indicate that Russia is advancing into new areas, and is also massing forces near the northeastern city of Sumy. While these gains may seem significant in the context of the ongoing conflict, they are often achieved at a rate that’s incredibly slow. The territory gained each month is achieved at an enormous cost, with estimates of casualties running into the tens of thousands. These gains are often achieved at the cost of immense losses, both in terms of human life and resources.
Putin’s strategy seems to be about maintaining a narrative of unwavering progress. It’s a way of projecting strength and the illusion of control. The goal may not necessarily be to seize all of Ukraine quickly, but to demonstrate that Russia is capable of sustained military operations and to wear down the will of the West to support Ukraine. Russia is trying to maintain the perception that they are unstoppable and are making headway, even if it is slow.
The long-term sustainability of this strategy is highly questionable, particularly given the economic pressures Russia is facing. The Russian economy is not designed for an endless war, and that is what they are currently engaged in. The inner circle is starting to feel the financial strain. Western sanctions are working, slowly but surely, and are beginning to impact the flow of money into Russia, and the Russian economy is faltering. These mounting economic woes, coupled with the high cost of the war in terms of human lives and resources, raise doubts about Putin’s ability to sustain his military campaign indefinitely.
One of the most significant factors limiting Putin’s ability to win is the unwavering support from the West for Ukraine. The international community’s backing of Ukraine, particularly from the EU, is crucial in the face of Russian aggression. It is not only about supplying weapons, and aid, but also putting additional pressure on Putin’s regime through further sanctions. More countries are supplying Ukraine with arms, drones, and long-range weapons, and the increasing number of countries building them as well is also a very positive sign.
Another important factor is the state of the Russian military. While Russia has the manpower, and a willingness to throw lives at the war effort, the loss of personnel on the front lines is high. There is the inevitable strain on their economy, as well as the conscription pool. The more they drag out this war, the more they are going to struggle to keep it up. They need to replace people, or they need to risk declaring war, which will tank their economy.
Despite the gains on the battlefield, and the perception of unstoppable momentum, Russia has its limitations. There are no indications that a Russian military breakthrough is on the horizon. The Russian military machine is also facing logistical challenges and shortages of advanced weaponry.
The goal of the West, in this scenario, is not just to support Ukraine but also to prevent the conflict from spreading. There is a balance to be struck between supporting Ukraine enough to defend itself, and not escalating the situation to involve other European nations. The situation that has developed with this war, is a careful consideration of the delicate nature of the conflict. The West has to provide the tools to Ukraine, without causing a wider war.
Regardless of the challenges that the West faces, as well as the internal issues that Russia is dealing with, it is evident that the tide may be changing. It is becoming more and more apparent that this war is not going to be determined by the size of the territory gained. It is going to be down to who collapses first due to economic or political pressure.