During a recent meeting in Wonsan, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reiterated his unwavering support for all Russian actions in Ukraine, welcoming Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to a newly built beach resort. The meeting comes as Pyongyang deepens its involvement in the conflict, potentially sending tens of thousands more soldiers to assist Moscow. This deepening alliance poses a threat to reshaping the war and security in Asia, with Russia increasingly reliant on North Korea for weaponry amidst the ongoing aerial assault on Ukraine.

Read the original article here

The recent meeting between a top Russian diplomat and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un highlights the deepening entanglement of Pyongyang in the ongoing war in Ukraine. It’s not a matter of simply being “pulled” in; the reality is far more complex, and frankly, a lot more concerning. The narrative that North Korea is a passive participant doesn’t ring true.

Kim seems to be calculating a significant gain from this arrangement. The game plan, from what I can gather, looks like this: supply Russia with outdated, expendable ammunition and, crucially, “meat soldiers.” In exchange, Kim is hoping to receive, at the very least, upgraded weaponry and potentially some technical expertise, even if that expertise is a generation or two behind current standards. He’s also likely to personally profit from the arrangement, siphoning off funds that were meant for the soldiers themselves. It’s a cynical deal, exploiting human lives for strategic and financial gain.

These soldiers, sent to the Ukrainian front, are seen as a learning opportunity. They will gain combat experience, potentially against Western-trained Ukrainian forces. Surviving soldiers might be redeployed as trainers upon their return, potentially boosting North Korea’s military capabilities. But this arrangement carries an even darker implication. With Russia’s budget crippled and recruitment figures plummeting, they are likely offering scant payment, if any, to North Korea. Instead, Pyongyang is probably being offered Soviet-era technology, blueprints, and potentially assistance in replicating technologies like Iranian drones.

The implications of this alliance are chilling. It’s a dangerous axis of sorts forming, where a cash-strapped Russia is reliant on North Korea’s willingness to provide manpower and outdated military hardware. This shift could have lasting effects. Let’s be clear, North Korea is not being “pulled” into this conflict. They are actively involved, and their motives are self-serving and strategically calculated.

The question isn’t *if* North Korea is involved; it’s the extent of their involvement. How much of their military is being diverted to Ukraine? The worry is that North Korea will further weaponize this war, sending obsolete weapons and, crucially, a “disposable” fighting force of political prisoners and other expendable soldiers to Ukraine. This is a cynical move, treating human lives as a mere resource.

While Russia can outsource production, Ukraine doesn’t have the same advantage. Russia is likely exploiting its access to technology in ways that Ukraine cannot. This is a strategic advantage for Russia, and North Korea is providing the tools and manpower for Russia to maintain its position on the battlefield.

There is a stark difference between the experience gained fighting against a Ukrainian military and facing a Western-equipped force. But even this limited experience is better than none. However, it’s a miscalculation to presume this translates into effective combat readiness. The focus is primarily to extract as much as possible from this arrangement, and the quality of training is secondary.

The technology transfer, even of outdated Soviet-era designs, is hugely significant for North Korea. It could offer major improvements to its arsenal, and the chance to learn shipbuilding techniques. China’s experience in this area is a good example to look at. Despite its resources, China struggled to master aircraft carrier technology for a long time, even needing to buy an old Soviet carrier to study it. Now they are making their own.

What’s more, the potential for this alliance to expand is alarming. The rumors of Laos sending troops and the close ties between China, Russia and North Korea hint at a unified front against the West.

Military analysts and strategists will certainly be pondering what that means. Will there be retaliation? What would it look like? The idea of a focused air campaign against North Korea, like what Israel does with Iran, would likely be the most effective, followed by the destruction of their infrastructure before any ground troops are deployed. But even then, Seoul remains vulnerable to artillery attacks, which is something North Korea does very well.

The sheer volume of North Korean soldiers and weapons is something to consider. This is not a country that is easily dismissed. They are a force to be reckoned with. The focus should not be on underestimating their capabilities, or underestimating their ruthlessness. With their vast numbers and potential access to advanced weaponry, the conflict could escalate in a way that is difficult to predict. The stakes are undeniably high, and the potential consequences are frightening.