By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In response to Donald Trump’s ultimatum regarding a peace agreement, Dmitry Medvedev characterized the demands as a “theatrical ultimatum,” suggesting indifference from Russia. This follows Trump’s criticism of Medvedev for comments regarding nuclear weapons, particularly concerning Iran. Trump’s ultimatum included the threat of tough sanctions if a peace agreement isn’t reached within 50 days, alongside plans to supply Ukraine with weapons, funded by European allies. The US president has also confirmed the commitment to send various types of weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot missiles, which will be fully paid for.
Read the original article here
Medvedev says Russia does not care about Trump’s “theatrical” ultimatum, and frankly, it’s hard to disagree. This isn’t the first time someone has pointed out the performative nature of Trump’s pronouncements, and in this case, it seems particularly apt. The consensus is that Trump’s threats are more about generating headlines and playing to his base than enacting meaningful consequences. The general sentiment is that Russia sees through the bluster, understanding that Trump’s actions rarely match his words.
The whole situation seems to be viewed as a game of political theater, where Trump is trying to project strength while potentially, and likely, leaving room for maneuverability. The cynicism around this is palpable. Many believe that Trump’s unpredictability and tendency to change his mind on a whim make his ultimatums hollow. There’s a sense that Russia has, to some extent, learned to anticipate his moves, and that they are factoring this uncertainty into their strategic calculations. The phrase “game recognizes game” is thrown around, implying Russia understands the performance and isn’t taking it seriously.
Furthermore, there’s a widespread belief that Trump’s primary motivation isn’t necessarily geopolitical strategy, but rather ego and personal gain. The idea that Russia is actively “pushing his buttons” is a popular theory. The argument follows that Russia is aware of Trump’s desire for validation and is exploiting this by appearing to disregard him, knowing this will incite a reaction. This strategy, from the Russian perspective, is a calculated move to manipulate Trump’s decisions. The 50-day timeframe is also highlighted as being unrealistic, hinting at the possibility of Trump backtracking on his “ultimatum.”
The underlying dynamic being played out seems to be a battle of egos, where Putin is trying to call Trump’s bluff, knowing Trump’s track record of flip-flopping makes this a viable tactic. Russia probably has a good understanding of Trump’s priorities, which would seem to be his own interests. The possibility of Trump changing his position to support Russia is not brushed off as being entirely out of the question.
The economic consequences of this situation are also being assessed. Many feel that the impact of any potential tariffs or sanctions would be limited. The volume of trade between the US and Russia is relatively small, and the wider world is not necessarily going to be affected. Even with harsh economic measures, other countries like China, India, and Turkey will not necessarily bend their foreign policies to suit Washington’s desires.
The idea that Trump is simply posturing, providing the window of 50 days to let Russia finish the job, is widespread. The perception is that any “punishment” will be symbolic rather than substantive. Trump has given many examples of not following through on statements, which undermines his credibility. The general feeling is that, behind the empty words, Trump is essentially granting Russia more time to achieve its goals in Ukraine, making the “ultimatum” a meaningless gesture. The general feeling is that the situation would be worse under Trump than under Biden, but this is largely due to Trump’s unreliable nature.
Overall, the assessment is that Russia is not overly concerned by Trump’s statements. They recognize the performance aspect, understand his motivations, and are taking actions accordingly. Trump’s track record and the relatively limited economic ties give Russia reason to believe they can weather any proposed actions, and that the “ultimatum” is merely a performance designed for domestic consumption.