By John Q. Hosedrinker 
During his state visit to the UK, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the need for European countries to lessen their reliance on both the US and China, citing concerns about trade imbalances and technological dependencies. Macron highlighted the importance of cooperation between France and the UK on issues like migration, and a youth mobility scheme. The president framed this as an effort to secure a sustainable future by de-risking economies from these dual dependencies, while also calling for closer collaboration to address global challenges like terrorism and defend shared values. Macron’s visit also included a focus on cultural exchange, referencing historical ties and signaling a new chapter in Anglo-French relations.
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Europe should reduce US and China ‘dual dependencies’, Macron warns. It seems like a sensible idea, especially considering the current global climate. We’re talking about a world where the old rules of trade and alliances are being rewritten, and a lot of people are starting to feel the squeeze of being overly reliant on just a couple of major players. Macron, it seems, has been on the right track with a lot of his assessments, even if the French public doesn’t always see eye to eye with him on everything. He’s made some tough calls, but there’s a consistent thread of strategic thinking running through his decisions, even if they are unpopular at times.
Considering France’s history with independent arms industries and its push for a more self-sufficient European military, it makes sense that Macron would want to diversify Europe’s economic and political relationships. The idea of being caught in a squeeze play between the U.S. and China, where either could exert significant pressure through trade, technology, or even access to critical resources, is a legitimate concern. It’s a bit like putting all your eggs in one basket, then having those eggs be a rare resource that you can’t easily replace. The need to diversify supply chains, as demonstrated by the lessons learned from the pandemic, is crucial. Relying too heavily on any single entity creates vulnerability. This move would also force the EU countries to be more self sufficient and not rely on the USA’s military-industrial complex as a means to an end.
The underlying principle is self-sufficiency. It’s about being able to stand on your own two feet, or at least have a solid foundation. The argument can be made that it doesn’t necessarily mean the end of globalization, but it does mean a strategic re-evaluation. Europe needs to be able to compete, not just survive, in this new world order. This doesn’t mean cutting off trade entirely; it’s about finding a balance that protects Europe’s interests and allows it to navigate the increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. It’s about finding a way to be a third major power in the new world order.
This is where it gets tricky. Reducing dependencies means building up domestic industries, fostering innovation, and investing in critical resources, none of which are overnight fixes. It also will have to be done as a collective whole instead of as individual nations. It is important to remember that Europe is not a single country, and coordination among various nations will be essential for any major shift in the global trade landscape. It’s a path that is going to be filled with infighting and setbacks. But the risk of inaction is arguably greater.
One of the biggest challenges will be the resistance. Any move towards self-sufficiency is going to upset the established order. There will be pushback from those who benefit from the current arrangements. The U.S. and China are both powerful players, with significant influence, and they are not going to let go of their economic leverage without a fight. Navigating this landscape will require a delicate balance of diplomacy, strategic alliances, and strong leadership.
Macron’s track record shows a willingness to challenge the status quo, and he has consistently supported the idea of a more assertive and independent Europe. But as some have pointed out, there’s often a disconnect between his grand pronouncements and the concrete actions that follow. This is one of the reasons for his unpopularity in France. It’s not that people disagree with his assessment of the situation, but that he has a hard time delivering the necessary action to fix the problems.
The other problem is that Macron and other leaders are forced to work within the political systems of their countries. In France, as in other democracies, there are many checks and balances, and the ability to act on an individual’s recommendation is severely hampered by the structure of the government. This forces leaders to work with their allies, and sometimes the things they believe in, become things they can not achieve. This can be frustrating to voters, which would explain why he’s not doing that bad on approval after all.
So, Macron’s call to reduce dual dependencies is not just a strategic imperative; it’s about ensuring Europe’s long-term economic and political viability. It’s about creating an environment where Europe can shape its own destiny, rather than being caught in the crossfire of a power struggle between the U.S. and China. The road ahead will be long and difficult, filled with internal debates and external pressures. However, for Europe, the stakes are too high to ignore.