By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Germany is contemplating a significant defense procurement plan, potentially valued at €25 billion, to procure thousands of combat vehicles for NATO’s expanding force structure. This strategic move, fueled by growing concerns of a large-scale European war, aims to bolster deterrence against Russia. The potential purchases include up to 2,500 GTK Boxer armored vehicles and up to 1,000 Leopard 2 battle tanks, designed to equip new brigades under NATO’s force generation plans. The German Defense Minister and military officials are reviewing the proposal, anticipating legislative approval by year-end, as Germany strives to meet its NATO commitments.
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Germany reportedly mulls a $29 billion tank and vehicle order, and this prompts immediate thoughts about the scale of the investment. That’s a lot of money, a truly staggering sum. We’re talking about a substantial commitment to bolstering their military might. The immediate question is, why? The answer, as the headline suggests, is to deter Russia. It’s a clear signal of intent, a statement that Germany is preparing to defend itself and its interests. This is, of course, predicated on the adage of being prepared for war in order to live in peace.
The discussion inevitably steers towards the actual hardware. What does $29 billion buy these days? We’re likely talking about a significant number of tanks and other armored vehicles, potentially with accompanying support systems like logistics and training. The type of equipment, the specific models, are important. Then, of course, the production capacity in Germany is crucial. How many tanks can they build per year, and how long will it take to fulfill such a massive order? These are all pieces of the puzzle that will determine the true efficacy of this endeavor.
However, buying the hardware is only the beginning. One of the more challenging aspects is going to be recruiting and training the personnel to effectively operate and maintain this equipment. You can have the best tanks in the world, but without skilled crews and support staff, they’re just expensive metal. This is especially critical because the personnel are a key ingredient for a combined arms approach to warfare, one which is a very well-oiled machine. This underscores the importance of not only the physical investment in the hardware but also the investment in the people who will use it.
But can these tanks be countered? Drones change warfare. However, the idea that tanks are now obsolete due to drones is an oversimplification. Drones do change the battlefield dynamics, providing new capabilities for reconnaissance, surveillance, and even direct attacks. In the Russo-Ukrainian war, drones have proven effective, especially in finding and eliminating lone positions. However, the bulk of losses are still attributed to traditional anti-tank weapons against, in some cases, outdated tanks. A good combined arms approach, including artillery, and other weapons platforms is still the key.
Some commentators believe drones are far more cost-effective than tanks and that more investment should be diverted there. This is a valid viewpoint, especially given the lessons learned from Ukraine. It makes sense to consider what technologies will be most effective in a modern conflict scenario. Yet, tanks still bring mobility and firepower to the battlefield in ways that are unmatched. It comes down to the overall balance of capabilities.
The sheer cost of the project is something that cannot be ignored. Is it a lot of money? Yes, but it is also an investment in Germany’s and potentially Europe’s defense. Comparisons to the US spending on its military can be drawn, putting things into perspective. The question is, is it the right kind of investment? Germany needs to carefully consider its priorities and ensure the order aligns with its strategic goals. Perhaps that includes a strong drone component to the strategy.
There’s also the question of long-term maintenance and operational costs. These tanks will not only be expensive to purchase, but also to maintain and operate over their lifespan. The cost of spare parts, fuel, training, and ongoing upgrades must be considered. This can add significantly to the overall financial burden, but this is the nature of military hardware.
Of course, the current geopolitical climate is very fluid. A major concern among many experts is that the situation in Ukraine highlights the importance of advanced technology. The nature of conflict is continually evolving. This creates uncertainty and the need for flexibility. Germany must be prepared to adapt its plans as new threats emerge.
The timing of the order is also important. The order of new equipment is dependent on production. There is not a plethora of tank factories worldwide. Furthermore, Germany needs to consider the implications for its allies and the broader European defense landscape.
There are differing views on whether the Germans should invest more in anti-tank drones versus tanks. This is an important point of discussion because the West is trying to deter Russia, not necessarily to occupy it. Drones have changed warfare, and their effectiveness in the current conflict cannot be dismissed. Yet, as a weapon of defense, tanks are a tried and true military asset.
The success of Germany’s military preparedness hinges not only on acquiring the best equipment but also on strategic planning. Ultimately, the goal is to deter aggression and maintain peace, and the best strategy will depend on the specific circumstances and the evolving nature of modern warfare.