By John Q. Hosedrinker 
A British court found three men guilty of arson in a March 2024 plot, allegedly orchestrated by Russian intelligence services, targeting a warehouse in London storing supplies for Ukraine. The arson, which involved recruited amateurs, is part of a growing campaign of disruption across Europe, with Western officials blaming Moscow for its role in more than 70 similar incidents since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Intelligence officials express growing concern about the increasing violence of these operations, including arson and sabotage, as the campaign evolves. The recruited saboteurs, often young people with no criminal records, receive instructions from Russian operatives, reflecting a shift in methods to employ proxies following expulsions of Moscow’s spies from Western countries.
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European intelligence officials warn that a Russian sabotage campaign is escalating. This is a serious development, no question about it. It’s a complex situation, a sort of hybrid warfare that’s playing out across various fronts, and it’s causing a lot of concern. The biggest worry is this: when there aren’t any major consequences for Russia’s actions, they’re going to keep pushing the boundaries.
The very fact that we’re talking about escalating sabotage implies that the previous strategies haven’t been enough to deter the Russians. We’ve seen this before – a cycle of actions and reactions, each one ratcheting up the tension. This is exactly what everyone has been afraid of, with the lack of real consequences, there’s nothing stopping them. The warnings are out there, and it is time to consider how democracies can respond. If we allow this to continue, it could lead to real, devastating consequences for everyone.
What does an escalating campaign look like? Well, it can take many forms. It might be attacks on critical infrastructure, like communication cables, energy grids, or transportation networks. It could involve cyberattacks designed to disrupt essential services or spread disinformation. We also see the use of “randos,” or regular people, to carry out these attacks. Because this is more public, the fallout can be more wide-reaching.
The problem is that Russia is playing a different game. They don’t necessarily fight head-on. They look for weakness, for vulnerabilities, and they exploit them. That means we have to be smarter, more vigilant, and more willing to work together.
The first step is awareness. We need to recognize the threat for what it is. This means being aware of how social media is manipulated, how disinformation spreads, and the tactics used to sow discord. It also means strengthening our own systems, making them more resilient to attacks. We have to be aware of the dangers of our own security.
Secondly, collaboration. This is not something any single country can handle on its own. The best defense is a coordinated international effort, one that shares intelligence, coordinates responses, and works together to shut down these operations. This is not just a job for intelligence agencies; it requires cooperation across all levels of government and the private sector.
Another critical aspect is holding Russia accountable. This could mean sanctions, asset freezes, and other measures. The goal is to make it clear that there are consequences for their actions, that these acts of aggression will not be tolerated. This is all about making sure they feel the pain for their actions.
The conversation about what the US would do is complicated, especially with the influence of certain figures. But the point is, it is hard to act when there is already such a divide internally.
But there is hope. Democracies are good at adapting. They learn, they adjust, and they get better. And we are seeing this happen now. We are getting better at fighting back against these tactics. The key is to use the intel, don’t just sit on it. We need to act on what we know.
The concern about being seen as too aggressive is real. But we can’t let that paralyze us. We have to walk a fine line, but we can’t ignore the threat. We need to protect our infrastructure, our democracies, and our way of life.
It’s easy to feel overwhelmed, but it is important to remain focused. This is about protecting our future. We must fight back by getting smarter. That is our best weapon.