By John Q. Hosedrinker 
China has begun construction on the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibet, which is raising significant concerns in India and Bangladesh. The dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river is expected to generate three times more energy than the Three Gorges Dam, potentially giving China control over water resources and impacting downstream communities. Indian officials have expressed fears of the dam causing rivers to “dry up” and acting as a “water bomb,” threatening livelihoods and the environment. Despite China’s claims of prioritizing ecological protection, the project has drawn criticism, with fears of exploitation, environmental damage, and the suppression of Tibetan protests.
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China starts building the world’s largest dam, and the news definitely makes you stop and think, especially when you recall those introductory geopolitical classes. The sheer dependence of major nations on single water sources, and the presence of nuclear weapons in some of those countries, is a sobering thought. The construction of this new dam in China, a project poised to become the world’s largest, immediately triggers a cascade of anxieties, particularly in India.
The real question in everyone’s mind is: will this impact water flows in India? It’s important to consider that much of the Brahmaputra’s water, the main river in question, originates and flows downstream. This means the dam, while massive, is unlikely to significantly alter the water volume reaching India and Bangladesh. The dam’s primary function appears to be generating hydroelectric power, exploiting the steep drop in elevation for maximum efficiency. Think of it as using the natural landscape to drive the turbines.
Unlike the Three Gorges Dam, this project won’t create an enormous reservoir. The engineering seems focused on harnessing the river’s natural flow and the steep terrain. One of the primary concerns is the potential for water to be weaponized as a form of control. It’s a scary thought: a nation leveraging its control of a water source to exert influence.
The geopolitical ramifications are also worth considering. The Brahmaputra flows through India, and the potential impacts of this dam on water resources are a concern. Pakistan’s reaction, given its own water disputes with India, is also worth noting. There’s a potential for a complex interplay of interests and potential tit-for-tat moves in the water sphere. India has already hinted at reevaluating its treaty with Pakistan.
Looking at the long-term, there are environmental concerns. The long-term effects on the glaciers that feed these rivers, considering the warming climate, is a critical factor. The dams themselves, despite being touted as green energy, have an impact on the environment. There’s also the issue of potential displacement of local communities, a painful reality witnessed during the construction of previous large-scale projects.
The historical context also matters. The desire to control water resources has been a driver of conflict throughout history. The ongoing border dispute between China and India in Arunachal Pradesh is intertwined with these concerns, particularly because this region is strategically important and the source of several critical waterways. The underlying motivation for China’s actions seems to be about asserting control and securing strategic advantages.
A critical factor is the likely impact on Bangladesh. Bangladesh lies downstream, it will most likely bear the brunt of any negative consequences, even though the new dam is being built upstream. Water politics can be very nasty and inhumane, and the need for dialogue and cooperation is critical.
Considering the bigger picture, the formation of the BRICS economic bloc and any potential internal conflicts are relevant. This is because unresolved issues exist between China and India. The reality is that international relations is always about national interests. For both India and China, there is a strategic advantage in working towards a more multipolar world.
From a strategic point of view, the ability to use ICBMs against dams is not a good idea, and is also worth highlighting. The issue is very serious.
In this context, the project has a lot of hydroelectric potential. If we talk about India, the country can be considered to be the initiator. China’s project could have impact. The impact on water quantities will be less. The project is beneficial for China. The most affected will be Bangladesh.