By Matt Underwood 
At least five Thais killed as Cambodia shells Thai border communities, the situation is undeniably tragic. The loss of life, especially the young, is a stark reminder of the human cost of conflict, regardless of its origins. The initial comments suggest a growing civilian death toll, a detail that paints a grim picture of the indiscriminate nature of the shelling. Reports of attacks on hospitals further amplify the brutality of the situation, indicating a disregard for basic humanitarian principles.
The question of why Cambodia decided to shell Thailand hangs heavy in the air. Speculation abounds, and a complex web of factors seems to be at play. Some believe this is a politically motivated act by Hun Sen, former Prime Minister, using nationalist sentiment in anticipation of the upcoming elections in Cambodia. The goal here is possibly to garner support and distract from internal issues. The long-standing border disputes and historical claims over territory, including the iconic Angkor Wat, are also seen as contributing factors.
The potential for this conflict to escalate is concerning. Cambodia’s military capabilities are dwarfed by Thailand’s. It’s a conventional war Thailand would be expected to win easily, which does not seem to justify initiating hostilities. One question is whether Cambodia is banking on support from its allies, like China, who have a naval base in Cambodia. China is unlikely to choose to make an enemy of Thailand, which is a much more important partner to them.
There is an increasing suspicion that the conflict is being driven by something other than genuine nationalistic ambitions. The inaccuracy of the artillery used, likely BM-21 Grad rockets, further adds to this impression. These are unguided weapons, designed to saturate an area rather than hit specific targets. This is likely to hit civilian targets, which is supported by the fact that the youngest casualty is an eight-year-old. It is hard to believe that hitting civilian targets is a direct goal but inevitable with the weapons being used.
The role of human trafficking and criminal elements complicates the narrative. Reports suggest that Thailand serves as a hub for human trafficking, with individuals lured into the country with false job offers and then subsequently transported across the border into Cambodia or Myanmar. These victims are often forced into illegal activities such as online casino operations and “pig butchering” scams. The existence of these criminal enterprises and their potential involvement in escalating tensions raises the specter of a shadow war, where the motives of the combatants are murky and the lines between state and criminal activity are blurred.
The term “pig butchering,” used in conjunction with “online casino operators,” warrants clarification. It’s important to note that “pig butchering” is a slang term referring to a specific type of scam operation. The main scam targets people on social media and dating apps and is designed to rob them of large sums of money through a fake cryptocurrency investment. The fact that the Cambodian government is so passive suggests their leaders may be involved with the criminal activity.
Finally, the possible involvement of external actors like Russia and China is a matter of speculation, but the potential for them to fuel and profit from the conflict cannot be dismissed. The sale of military equipment and the potential for increased influence in the region could be driving some decisions. The narrative of an unscrupulous actor using a local conflict for their own gain is a familiar one, and the situation certainly warrants careful consideration.