By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Armenian police have refused to extradite Semyon Subbotin, a Russian deserter, despite Russia placing him on an international wanted list for desertion. Subbotin, aided by a project assisting those fleeing mobilization, sought protection from Armenian authorities after learning of potential attempts to forcibly return him to Russia. Following a 72-hour detention, during which Russia attempted to take him without proper procedures, Subbotin was released and remains free. Russia has not yet formally requested his extradition, and any request will be reviewed by Armenian courts.
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Armenia refuses to hand over Russian deserter unwilling to fight in Ukraine, which is a pretty big deal, especially considering the current geopolitical climate. What’s really interesting is that Russia, rather than going through official extradition channels, allegedly sent “goons” to try and snatch the deserter. It speaks volumes about how far Russia is willing to go, and how little regard they have for international norms, particularly given the situation in Ukraine.
This guy, thankfully, was smart. He apparently had the Armenian police arrest him to protect himself, preventing a situation similar to what other Russian deserters have suffered. The fact that these alleged “goons” were brazen enough to confront the Armenian police and demand the deserter’s release is almost comical in its audacity. It shows a certain level of arrogance, a sense of entitlement, that’s become pretty characteristic of Russia’s approach on the world stage these days.
It’s worth noting, in this whole context, that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has massively reshaped its relationships with other nations. They’ve alienated former allies or soured relations with countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Syria, and the Central Asian nations. The only real friends they seem to have made are with North Korea and, to a certain extent, they’re increasingly reliant on China for support, essentially becoming reliant on Beijing’s economic benevolence.
The long-term effects of the war on Russia are likely to be devastating. The geopolitical, economic, demographic, and military costs will probably cripple the nation for decades. Honestly, it’s hard to imagine them fully recovering in this century. The deserter likely understands this, and made a smart decision. He probably faces kidnapping and being thrown back on the front lines as cannon fodder. He really does deserve credit for seeing the writing on the wall and acting to protect himself.
This scenario actually brings up some interesting strategic possibilities for Ukraine. If they could effectively communicate with Russian soldiers, perhaps through targeted messaging or even offering safe passage and fair treatment to those who defect, it could weaken Russia’s fighting force. It’s a delicate balance, though, as it’s also recognized that many Ukrainians may understandably have reservations about welcoming more Russians, especially with a long history of mistreatment at the hands of Russia.
The idea of enticing Russian soldiers to surrender through promises of respect and good treatment is really interesting. It’s something Ukraine is already doing, apparently. It would be far less costly to feed and detain surrendering soldiers than to continue fighting them. This is a pragmatic approach. The war, at its core, highlights how a strategy of winning hearts and minds can be so much more effective than outright military force.
The level of brutality that some of these deserters are reportedly facing highlights the moral disparity at play. There are reports of the Wagner Group and others using extreme methods. It speaks to the kind of regime they operate under, and it really underscores the high stakes involved for anyone trying to escape the conflict.
The challenges in getting Russian soldiers to surrender are significant, though. Their military is utilizing various tactics to prevent desertion, creating an environment where simply walking away can mean death at the hands of your own forces. Plus, there’s the pervasive propaganda that paints Ukrainians as the enemy, which is definitely going to make any defection all the more difficult to accomplish.
Ukraine, however, has reportedly been actively communicating with Russian troops, providing them with instructions on how to surrender and utilizing drones to guide them to safety. This is smart. It’s a direct response to a humanitarian crisis, showing a commitment to treating people with respect and humanity, even while they’re engaged in combat.
The entire situation surrounding the deserter shows a bigger picture. It underscores how Russia’s actions have led to a significant loss of trust and influence on the global stage. It highlights how countries are starting to push back against Russia’s actions, and how this conflict is having a profound impact on the world order.