By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are meeting in Abu Dhabi to finalize a peace agreement, marking a significant step after decades of conflict. This meeting takes place with Russia largely absent, a shift driven by Moscow’s diminished influence in the South Caucasus due to its war in Ukraine. Russia is attempting to regain its influence through disinformation campaigns and by trying to manage trade and transport between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Experts warn that even if Russia’s influence remains diminished, instability in the region may persist, as internal power struggles are anticipated.
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Armenia and Azerbaijan move closer to peace, pushing Russia out from the South Caucasus, a shift that feels like a significant turning point in a region that’s known for its complex history and persistent tensions. It’s almost like we’re witnessing a new chapter unfold, one that might even rewrite the script of the South Caucasus.
The thing is, achieving peace in this part of the world has always been a delicate balancing act, complicated by a multitude of factors. But now, with a combination of circumstances – perhaps most notably, Armenia’s weakened position after the recent conflict and the fading support from Russia – a path toward resolution is opening up. It is not to be denied that Azerbaijan secured a decisive victory, and the resulting shift in power dynamics is undeniable.
It’s important to acknowledge that the situation isn’t just about one side “winning” or “losing.” The core issues are the border disputes, the displacement of people, and the legacy of unresolved grievances that have fueled conflicts for decades. However, Armenia’s reduced ability to rely on Russia, the “shit throwing neighbor” as it were, has dramatically altered the playing field, it is almost as if the absence of Russian interference may well have created a window of opportunity for real, lasting peace.
The idea of Russia’s influence waning in the region might be a welcome development for many. Russian involvement has often been viewed with skepticism, as a force that complicates rather than simplifies things. It’s easy to see how their actions, or inaction, in this region have contributed to the instability. There’s definitely a sentiment that, without Russia’s meddling, Armenia and Azerbaijan might finally be able to address their issues without external interference.
This isn’t to suggest that the road ahead will be easy. The bitter feelings from the recent conflict and the long history of animosity will require careful navigation. However, the circumstances have changed dramatically, and Armenia’s shift towards a more pro-Western stance might further incentivize a peaceful resolution. The expulsion of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh is a deep wound and the process of healing and reconciliation will take time.
The question of border demarcation, a legacy of the Soviet era, is another crucial aspect. The current boundaries, drawn without much regard for ethnic realities on the ground, have been a constant source of tension. Realistically, renegotiating these borders is essential for creating a more sustainable peace agreement and it is likely these negotiations are finally on the table.
It is important to recognize how Armenia was forced into deals that favor Azerbaijan because of their former “ally” being too busy in Ukraine to support them. However, the shift also comes down to Armenia’s defeat in the recent war. It’s a scenario where Armenia had to move on, basically admitting defeat.
Let’s be clear: this whole situation isn’t exactly straightforward. The reality is that Armenia has been pushed to a point where they have no choice but to make deals that favor Azerbaijan. The region is also experiencing a degree of ethnic cleansing in the disputed area, and the threat of this happening to other parts of Armenia is very real.
Now, the hope is that these talks will lead to a lasting peace. It’s a complex picture, but there’s an undeniable sense that the stars might be aligning for something positive to happen. The potential for a peaceful resolution is there, but the challenges are substantial. This is where the focus should be. The outcome is not a guarantee.
Ultimately, what we’re seeing in the South Caucasus is a complex interplay of geopolitics, regional power struggles, and the deeply ingrained history of the two nations. As this unfolds, the world will be watching closely, hoping that this shift paves the way for lasting peace in a region that deserves it.