By Matt Underwood Satellite imagery has revealed the extent of damage inflicted on Russian bombers during a recent Ukrainian attack. The images clearly show multiple aircraft destroyed and severely damaged, grounding a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. Even aircraft deemed “just damaged” are effectively out of commission due to Russia’s ongoing struggles with corruption and supply chain issues, making repairs improbable in the near term.
Initial reports suggested the destruction of several Tu-160 bombers, a significant loss considering the limited number actively deployed. Satellite photos indicated a substantial number of destroyed aircraft, with initial counts suggesting at least ten, possibly more. These counts included Tu-22Ms, Tu-95s, and other aircraft. The destruction of such a large number is exceptionally humiliating for Russia and highlights the vulnerability of their airbases.
Further analysis of the imagery confirmed the destruction of at least twelve bombers, based on visual evidence and pre-attack satellite imagery comparing the before and after images of the base. This analysis revealed losses across multiple bomber types, impacting Russia’s overall air capabilities. The destruction included a mixture of Tu-22M3s and Tu-95s, with some ambiguity surrounding a few other damaged aircraft. Pre-strike imagery confirmed that at least a number of Tu-160’s were present at the base.
The relatively small number of surviving bombers from this attack has further implications. It will inevitably lead to increased flight hours for the remaining aircraft, increasing the risk of further accidents and failures. The possibility of cannibalization of parts from damaged aircraft to repair surviving ones exists, but this is limited given the precise targeting of the attack, as the damage is not uniform across damaged planes. This means components from one damaged aircraft cannot easily replace parts on another.
There are interesting strategic implications stemming from this attack. This operation highlights the vulnerability of Russia’s airbases, particularly those operating large, strategic bombers. The relatively close proximity of these bases to highways, dictated by logistical necessities, makes them easy targets for sophisticated drone attacks, a relatively new type of threat. The successful deployment of drones launched from mobile containers emphasizes the effectiveness of this new tactic against traditional military infrastructure. Furthermore, the lack of hardened shelters in many of the bases has rendered these aircraft particularly vulnerable.
The attack’s success is also partly attributed to Russia’s adherence (or at least previous adherence) to the New START treaty, which mandates the deployment of nuclear-capable bombers in less-defensible locations. While Russia formally withdrew from the treaty in 2023, its provisions regarding basing of nuclear bombers have been, until now, mostly respected, both by Russia, the United States and even China. The Ukrainian strike therefore poses a strategic concern, as it could prompt Russia and China to discontinue their voluntary compliance with New START, leading to geopolitical repercussions outweighing the immediate losses for the US and Europe.
The loss of these bombers is especially critical given Russia’s seemingly regressed manufacturing capabilities. The country’s struggles in producing modern tanks like the T-14 and the Su-57 fighter jet in significant numbers suggest a wider industrial deficiency. This might indicate a diminished capacity to replace the lost bombers, leaving Russia with a significantly weakened air force in the long term. The implication is a protracted war will severely strain the Russian economy and military potential. It also highlights the extent to which Ukraine was a vital component of the Soviet Union’s industrial complex, encompassing shipbuilding, tank production, and aerospace capabilities.
The ability to repair or salvage the damaged bombers is further limited by the precision of the drone strikes. The deliberate targeting of specific aircraft components, such as wings, prevents simple parts swapping between damaged planes, rendering many beyond economical repair. Furthermore, the assumption that Russia will simply use the damaged planes for spare parts is an oversimplification and disregards the extent of damage inflicted.
In conclusion, the recent Ukrainian attack on Russian airbases has demonstrably weakened Russia’s air force. The satellite imagery confirms significant losses of strategic bombers, exposing vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defense strategy and highlighting the effectiveness of modern asymmetric warfare techniques. The long-term impact on Russia’s military capacity is substantial, potentially further hindering their war effort and signaling a significant strategic setback. The implications of these losses extend beyond just the immediate military consequences, potentially influencing the future trajectory of the conflict and the geopolitical landscape.