By John Q. Hosedrinker 
President Donald Trump arrived in The Hague for his first NATO summit since returning to office, a meeting overshadowed by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, despite a previously called-for ceasefire. Trump expressed displeasure with both nations for allegedly violating the truce, suggesting Israel overreacted to Iranian missile launches. Key objectives for the summit included securing commitments from NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to “hard defense,” and reiterating support for Ukraine, including counting military aid towards defense spending goals. The summit’s agenda was carefully managed to project unity, with a focus on a closed-door working session and a single-page communique.
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Trump joins the NATO summit in the aftermath of U.S. Iran strikes, and the whole situation feels…fraught. You get the sense that a certain level of anticipation hangs in the air. What exactly will he do? What will he say? And how will the other world leaders react to his presence, particularly in light of the recent strikes? It’s a moment where the global stage is set for a potential blend of diplomatic maneuvering, awkward encounters, and, let’s be honest, a significant dose of potential embarrassment.
The anticipation centers around the unknown, including just how much pressure might be applied regarding recent actions. Remember, this is a meeting of allies, and while solidarity is the goal, there’s bound to be some scrutiny, some pointed questions. And, of course, there’s the ever-present worry of him unintentionally spilling classified information or making a diplomatic blunder. The possibility of live-tweeting sensitive details is an obvious concern for many.
His self-proclaimed desire for a Nobel Peace Prize has become a running joke. It’s tough to imagine the reaction of the other leaders, many of whom have likely observed his past behavior. The possibility that he might arrive with a hefty dose of bluster and a desire for adulation is a real one. He could be expecting praise, but the reality might be very different. He may be the focus of gentle mockery. There’s always the chance he might alienate allies with brash statements or controversial opinions.
Many are suggesting that he may try to dominate the conversation, as well as attempt to strong-arm and bully around. The issue of how to handle any discussion of Article 5 is another thing that’s on the minds of many. The expectation is that he will try to twist the interpretation. And then, of course, there’s the potential for him to use the summit as an opportunity to cozy up to autocratic leaders, or to criticize and berate any reporters he finds critical of him.
There are some practical concerns at play here, as well. Questions regarding the U.S. bases in Europe and any potential for increased rent are being raised. All of these potential conflicts and difficulties add to the idea that the meeting is going to be anything but simple.
The whole situation is a mix of concerns and predictions. One prediction is that he’ll quickly grow bored, say something outrageous, and then take his leave. There’s also the possibility that someone in the audience may fall asleep. It’s a situation ripe for a repeat of those hot-mic moments of the past.
Even the idea of his attendance feels like an intrusion to some. There’s a palpable sense of dread among those who may be there. Some even raise the idea of a collective cold shoulder, a deliberate effort to sideline him and minimize any interaction.
The context of the Iran strikes complicates things further. The concerns are real, particularly because the Iranian situation is far more complex than his rhetoric might suggest. A discussion about Iran’s nuclear program reveals complexities that likely won’t be acknowledged. The fact that enrichment, in itself, doesn’t equal a weapon, is a key part of the situation.
In the end, the prospect of his presence at this NATO summit feels like a case of the world’s worst possible choices. It’s a situation that is generating a mixture of apprehension and a sense of impending drama.