An investigation by Yle reveals that Western sanctions have largely failed to halt Russian aviation. Despite strict bans on exporting aircraft parts, Russia has imported almost a billion euros worth of Airbus and Boeing components since 2022. These parts, including engines and electronics with potential military applications, have been sourced through third countries like Turkey, China, and the United Arab Emirates. Although both Airbus and Boeing claim to comply with sanctions, the influx of parts indicates Russia’s ability to circumvent restrictions, raising safety concerns amidst an increase in aviation accidents.

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Russia still getting spare parts for aircrafts despite sanctions is a reality we need to understand. You see, the idea of completely isolating a country, especially one as large and complex as Russia, through sanctions is, frankly, an oversimplification. While sanctions definitely make things harder and more expensive for them to acquire restricted goods, they aren’t a magic bullet that shuts down everything. It’s not a complete blockade as some might believe.

The crux of the matter is that Russia is still managing to get aircraft parts, and a significant factor in this is the use of intermediaries. Countries bordering Russia and those with less stringent trade regulations are becoming hubs for circumventing sanctions. These middlemen step in to facilitate the flow of goods, taking on the risk of getting caught and, understandably, demanding a higher price for their services. This drives up the cost of the parts, making it more expensive for Russia, but it doesn’t stop the flow entirely.

In the civil aerospace industry, this is a familiar struggle. Parts are moving through countries like China and India, and stopping this flow is incredibly difficult. The industry grapples with end-user agreements, but these documents aren’t foolproof. A simple signature doesn’t guarantee compliance. The war itself becomes a business opportunity, with the demand for parts and the willingness to pay driving the grey market.

A significant part of this problem is that not everyone is on board with the sanctions. Only a fraction of the world’s countries have fully sanctioned Russia, leaving a large part of the global economy open to trade. Furthermore, some western corporations have taken measures to continue their sales within Russia by renaming their brands or relocating their operations, effectively circumventing the sanctions’ intent.

The repercussions of these sanctions are felt differently. While the government and larger businesses may still be able to find their way around, the rest of the Russian economy suffers. They are being cut off from global markets, a process that bleeds the country over time. While sanctioned, they are still bleeding. Meanwhile, other countries and markets are gaining a massive advantage.

The economic picture is grim. The Russian government has been taking measures that can be considered unsustainable. There have been massive loans to the military industry, and depletion of sovereign wealth funds. There has been a reliance on increased debt and the shifting of funds around state-owned companies. They have had to cut back on infrastructure investments, and they’re looking to increase taxes and fees on their citizens.

This is why the system has become so complicated. A simple transaction is being replaced by a complex series of ad-hoc commodities pricing, customs declarations, and logistics, just to get the basics done. Bypassing the legal hurdles isn’t as difficult as some may believe. It’s a matter of finding the right connections and being willing to pay the price, whether that be increased cost or risk.

Consider how Russia’s financial situation is evolving. They began with a large financial reserve before the invasion, but now they have deficits larger than the remaining reserves. Inflation is already high, and there are high interest rates. Negative GDP growth has been reported for the first time, which could lead to a recession. The overall economy is in decline.