By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Although Russia has inflicted substantial casualties and destruction in Ukraine, Moscow has not formally declared war. This strategic decision stems from the Kremlin’s fear of domestic backlash, as a declaration of war would necessitate full mobilization and economic shifts. Despite the denial, experts note Russia’s economy is already on a wartime footing, with increased defense spending and production. Furthermore, a formal declaration would have significant geopolitical implications, signaling a more aggressive stance to the international community and potentially affecting Russia’s relationship with other nations.
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Putin under pressure to declare war on Ukraine, but the situation is far from simple, and the experts seem to be in agreement: Russia isn’t ready. It’s almost absurd to even suggest that Russia is *considering* declaring war, when, as the general sentiment suggests, it’s already been a war for quite some time. The consistent references to a “special military operation” feel like a deliberate avoidance tactic, and the implication is clear: a formal declaration is a risky political move that wouldn’t actually change the reality on the ground, which, for many, has been a brutal war for years now.
The pressure to formally declare war, especially from the hardliners within Russia, stems from a number of factors, but the recent Ukrainian drone attack, notably “Operation Spiderweb,” that targeted Russian bombers, seems to be a key catalyst. Such an attack, successful in its execution, likely intensified the calls for a stronger, more definitive response. The motivation is clear: a formal declaration would potentially allow for a full mobilization, a tactic Russia hasn’t employed to its full extent thus far. This would, in theory, provide a significant manpower boost, desperately needed to support the current military operation, as well as allow the country to fully commit to war, as it’s been doing for years.
However, Putin’s hesitancy is understandable. A full-scale mobilization would unleash a wave of new challenges. It’s a gamble, and history is a good teacher. The memory of the 2022 partial mobilization and the ensuing domestic backlash is still fresh. The protests, the unrest, the fear – these are all factors that must weigh heavily on Putin’s decision-making. The Russian people, already worn down by the ongoing conflict, might not react well to a full-scale declaration of war and the expected escalation of conscription. This could be a trigger for mass dissent.
Experts are also noting the significant changes to the Russian economy to accommodate the ongoing conflict. The sentiment is that the Russian economy is already functioning, more or less, as though it were a wartime economy. This begs the question: what would an official declaration even *do*? The economic transition already underway is probably as far as Putin is prepared to go. It would allow him to fully utilize the war footing he has already introduced. The declaration would likely be more symbolic than anything else, a political play with potentially dire consequences.
The concept of whether the past few years were merely a prelude, or something else entirely, emerges in the conversation. The phrase “Special Military Operation” itself is put under scrutiny, with comments highlighting the absurdity of the situation. How can years of invasion, bombardment, and bloodshed not be considered a war? The dissonance between the reality on the ground and the official terminology is striking, and the continued use of the phrase feels like a deliberate effort to control the narrative, even while the rest of the world watches. The use of different words will not change anything.
The manpower issues Russia faces are also a major concern. A formal declaration would pave the way for a more extensive draft, an attempt to replenish the forces depleted by the ongoing conflict. However, the potential for this to backfire is enormous. Given how badly the “special operation” has already gone, a full mobilization could strain the nation’s resources and further damage Putin’s grip on power. The fear seems to be a perfect storm of social and economic disruption.
Furthermore, the idea that Russia might try to blame Ukraine for escalating the situation is also worth noting. Declaring war now could be a maneuver to shift blame, making it seem as though the recent events have forced Russia’s hand. This seems to be a calculated attempt to rewrite the narrative, something which is a common practice in the political landscape. The current course of action is to deny that Russia has been at war this whole time.
Ultimately, the situation is complex, and Putin’s decision will depend on numerous factors, including the ongoing battlefield losses, the pressures from hardliners, and the potential for domestic unrest. The experts’ take is that Russia is already in a de facto state of war, and a formal declaration would primarily be a political act fraught with significant risks. The key takeaway is that the “special military operation” is anything but, and the question now is not *if* Russia is at war, but what political games are Putin willing to play?