By John Q. Hosedrinker 
A leaked FSB document exposes a clandestine intelligence war between Russia and China, revealing deep distrust and accusations of Chinese espionage targeting Russian military operations in Ukraine and the Arctic. The document details Chinese efforts to recruit Russian scientists and intelligence officers, particularly those with access to sensitive information, and highlights concerns over potential Chinese territorial ambitions. In response, the FSB launched “Entente-4,” a counterintelligence program aimed at mitigating the threat, including increased surveillance of Russian-Chinese collaborations. This hidden conflict stands in stark contrast to the publicly proclaimed “no limits” partnership between the two nations.
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A leaked Russian intelligence document labeling China as “the enemy” reveals a deep-seated fear within Moscow, a fear far exceeding the anxieties surrounding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This isn’t simply a matter of geopolitical maneuvering; it speaks to a fundamental vulnerability in Russia’s position on the world stage.
The document’s revelation underscores a stark reality: Russia’s current alliance with China is one of convenience, not of genuine camaraderie. While both nations share certain objectives, such as a desire for a multipolar world order that diminishes Western influence, their long-term interests diverge significantly. China’s economic ambitions, its focus on sustained growth and domestic stability, contrast sharply with Russia’s more erratic, militaristic approach.
Russia’s declining military might further fuels this apprehension. The vast territories north of China, rich in resources like freshwater lakes, represent a potential point of contention. China’s sheer size and economic strength position it to eventually outmaneuver Russia, even absorbing parts of its territory if the opportunity arises. This isn’t a prediction of an immediate Sino-Soviet Split 2.0, but it paints a picture of a relationship far from equal. China’s calculated patience and strategic long game contrast starkly with Russia’s more impulsive tactics.
Russia’s current predicament is largely self-inflicted. A focus on aggressive actions, human rights violations, and war crimes has alienated potential allies in Europe. Had Russia pursued constructive relationships with the European Union, it could have found a powerful partner against the rising influence of China. Instead, Russia finds itself isolated, economically weakened, and facing an uncertain future. This strategic miscalculation leaves Russia vulnerable to China’s machinations.
China’s calculus is considerably different. It views the war in Ukraine as an opportunity, exploiting it for economic gain by securing cheap resources from Russia and simultaneously trading with both Russia and the West. In a longer perspective, a weakened or fractured Russia could present the chance to annex resource-rich territories in Siberia, an area already boasting a sizable Chinese population. China’s strategy is far more nuanced than Russia’s, employing a long-term vision that overshadows Russia’s short-sighted approach.
The Russian strategy of sowing discord within Western societies through misinformation and support for far-right groups has proven ineffective against China’s resilience. The sheer demographic difference – ten Chinese citizens for every Russian – further complicates Russia’s attempts at manipulation. China’s economic and technological dominance makes it immune to Russia’s traditional tactics of undermining its adversaries.
The fears expressed in the leaked document go beyond mere economic and territorial concerns. The potential for a conflict with NATO poses a particularly grave threat to Russia. A decisive NATO victory would leave Russia vulnerable to Chinese expansionism, potentially resulting in significant territorial losses. This scenario underscores the precariousness of Russia’s current position and helps to explain the intensity of its anxieties regarding China.
While some argue that the document’s leak serves as a strategic move to garner support and deter increased NATO defense spending, the underlying fear remains valid. The imbalance of power between Russia and China is undeniable, leaving Russia in a subordinate position within their uneasy partnership. The document serves as an uncomfortable confirmation of Russia’s long-term insecurity and its vulnerability to China’s ambitions. The relationship, far from being a strategic partnership of equals, appears to be one of growing dominance on the part of China and a corresponding increase in Russia’s fear and apprehension. The future holds little promise for a lasting Russian-Chinese alliance, particularly given the differing priorities and contrasting strategic approaches of both nations.