By John Q. Hosedrinker 
A Syrian source indicates a peace agreement between Israel and Syria is anticipated before the close of 2025. This agreement reportedly includes a gradual Israeli withdrawal from all Syrian territory seized after a 2024 invasion, encompassing Mount Hermon. Full normalization of relations between the two nations is expected, with the Golan Heights designated as a zone of peace.
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Israel and Syria will sign a peace agreement before the end of 2025, although it’s crucial to approach this with a measured perspective. While the idea is exciting, and the potential benefits are substantial, it’s not a done deal. Various factors could derail the process, and it’s wise to remember that a “framework” or “plan” is simply a foundation for change, not a guaranteed outcome. This is a complex situation, and the path to peace is rarely straightforward.
The core of the reported agreement involves Israel gradually withdrawing from Syrian territory seized after the invasion of a buffer zone on December 8, 2024. This includes returning land, specifically the peak of Mount Hermon. However, the legal status of other areas of the Golan Heights remains a significant question mark. The resolution of this issue will be critical to the success of any agreement.
The potential for peace between these two nations holds enormous promise for the region. A peace agreement could lead to economic opportunities for Syria, especially through Israeli investment. Furthermore, a formalized peace could enable easier travel and increased commercial exchange. Some believe that this may be the dawn of a new Middle East, while others might be skeptical and feel it is too early to tell, or that the timing is too soon to make such predictions.
A significant strategic win for Israel would be the formal recognition of its sovereignty over the Golan Heights, whether de jure or de facto. This, combined with a potential land connection to Europe through Syria and Turkey, would be a major benefit for Israel.
The security landscape in Syria is an important consideration. The security situation could deteriorate, and the whole agreement could collapse if the country is in a state of civil unrest. If such instability happens, the current structure for the peace deal could change. The role of various factions, particularly those backed by Iran, will also be crucial. They are likely to attempt destabilization of the Syrian government and potentially attack Israeli forces.
The actions of groups like the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria (IRFS), which opposes the new Syrian government and Israel, could threaten the agreement. The IDF already has been working to hunt down these groups. The fact that missiles were launched from Syria recently adds another layer of uncertainty.
A crucial factor here is the weakening of Iran’s influence in Syria. The lack of Iran’s regime in Syria provides more opportunities for a “cold peace” between Israel and Syria. This is what many wish for, like with Jordan. Assad’s history of brutal treatment of Palestinians is a significant factor to consider.
The October 7th attacks in Israel significantly shifted the dynamics in the region. One of the many goals may have been to derail the Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, and the impact has reverberated through the area. With the weakening of Hezbollah and the diminishing of Iran’s influence in Syria, the conditions are more favorable for an agreement.
The new Syrian government, under Ahmad al-Sharaa, faces a massive test. Their success in integrating into the international community and maintaining stability will be crucial. There is an understanding of the potential of the Golan Heights being kept, but there is also an open dialogue between both sides. If Israel provides security to the new Syrian regime, the Golan Heights could potentially stay where it is.
Israel’s long-standing policy of not toppling neighboring dictators, coupled with the protection provided by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, explains why Assad was not removed from power earlier. Now, the situation is different. The Russian invasion of Ukraine weakened Russia, and the aftermath of October 7th weakened Hezbollah, leaving Assad without his key allies. The environment has changed.