By John Q. Hosedrinker 
China’s growing influence in the Pacific, fueled by the U.S.’s withdrawal from climate commitments and reduced engagement under the Trump administration, has alarmed Australia and New Zealand. Beijing has significantly increased its diplomatic and economic ties with Pacific Island nations, exemplified by a new strategic partnership with the Cook Islands and unannounced military drills in the Tasman Sea. This assertive approach, including increased aid and embassy openings, contrasts sharply with the reduced U.S. presence and has left Australia and New Zealand struggling to counter China’s growing power without full U.S. support. The resulting power vacuum and China’s attractive offers of economic cooperation and prestige have left many Pacific Island nations open to Beijing’s influence.
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Alarm is growing in Australia and New Zealand as China’s influence expands across the Pacific, particularly given a perceived US retreat from the region. This concern isn’t unfounded; years of neglect and even derision towards Pacific Island nations by Australia and New Zealand have created a vacuum that China is readily filling. The consequences are now becoming starkly apparent.
This situation isn’t simply about a power vacuum. The perception of a US retreat, fueled by decisions like the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the closure of key climate diplomacy offices, is creating a potent narrative for China to exploit. China’s active engagement on climate relief, juxtaposed against the perceived inaction of the US, is proving incredibly persuasive to vulnerable Pacific Island nations. The optics are undeniably powerful.
This perceived US disengagement, coupled with Australia and New Zealand’s past failures, is exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. Internal issues like the cost of living crisis, underinvestment in crucial sectors, and political instability are weakening both countries’ ability to respond effectively to China’s advances. These internal struggles are creating a feeling of powerlessness and vulnerability that China is expertly leveraging.
The argument that Australia and New Zealand simply can’t compete with China economically holds weight. However, dismissing the situation solely on economic grounds ignores the geopolitical implications. The lack of a robust military response, compounded by a history of inadequate engagement with Pacific neighbors, is leaving a strategic void for China to occupy.
The narrative that China’s actions are merely “propaganda” and a show of force designed to inflate military budgets lacks full perspective. While the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) currently lacks the experience and logistical capabilities of the US Navy, China’s massive shipbuilding capacity hints at a rapid expansion of its naval power. This rapid growth, alongside China’s active diplomatic engagement, points to a long-term strategy that cannot be simply ignored.
The suggestion that Australia and New Zealand should simply align themselves with China overlooks significant cultural and political concerns. Trust in the US may be wavering, but China’s own record on human rights and regional influence remains a source of considerable apprehension. The notion of simply accepting China’s dominance is deeply problematic and overlooks the potential for future risks.
Furthermore, the argument that this is merely “arms marketing” is simplistic. While increased military spending may well be a consequence, the underlying geopolitical shift presents genuine security concerns for Australia and New Zealand. The strategic implications extend beyond simple military capabilities, encompassing economic, political, and social influence.
While the comparison to a past attempt at a Pacific security alliance, like SEATO, is relevant, the current situation demands a more nuanced and agile approach. Existing programs, like the Pacific Patrol Boat Scheme, are valuable but limited in scope. What is needed now is a more comprehensive and proactive strategy that acknowledges both the economic and security dimensions of China’s expansion.
The concern isn’t solely about military threats; it also involves the erosion of influence and the strategic implications of increased Chinese control over critical infrastructure and resources in the Pacific. This broader concern extends beyond military posturing and encompasses the potential loss of regional influence and stability. The “she’ll be right” mentality is no longer a sustainable response. The time for proactive measures is now.
Finally, the internal challenges faced by Australia and New Zealand add urgency to the situation. Addressing internal economic and social inequalities, and investing in strong, strategic partnerships within the region is crucial not only to maintaining regional stability, but to preserving national interests and addressing the concerns of the citizens. Ignoring these internal vulnerabilities while focusing solely on external threats will further weaken both nations’ capacity to navigate this increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. The challenge requires a multi-pronged approach addressing both internal weaknesses and external pressures, all within a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.