By John Q. Hosedrinker 
President Zelensky stated that Ukraine cannot guarantee the safety of foreign officials attending Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade, emphasizing that responsibility for their security rests solely with the Kremlin. He warned of potential Russian provocations designed to frame Ukraine and advised visiting delegations accordingly. This follows a March 2024 missile strike on Odesa during a visit by the Greek Prime Minister. Ukraine has communicated this security concern to relevant nations, while maintaining diplomatic engagement despite the risks.
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Ukraine’s President Zelensky has stated unequivocally that Ukraine bears no responsibility for the safety of foreign officials traveling to Moscow for the May 9th Victory Day parade. This declaration, while seemingly provocative, is rooted in the fundamental reality of the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.
The very notion of Ukraine guaranteeing the security of individuals attending a military parade in a country actively engaged in an aggressive war against it is absurd. It’s akin to expecting a nation under siege to ensure the safety of its attackers during a celebratory display of their military might. The sheer incongruity of such an expectation highlights the inherent illogicality of Russia’s position.
The potential for Ukraine to strike military targets within Moscow, particularly during a high-profile event like the Victory Day parade, is certainly a possibility. However, the question isn’t solely about military strategy; it’s also about the complex political ramifications of such an action. A strike on the parade, while potentially delivering a significant symbolic blow and disrupting Russia’s carefully orchestrated display of power, would present extremely high risks.
The presence of numerous foreign dignitaries, including world leaders such as Xi Jinping and Lula, dramatically increases the stakes. An attack resulting in even accidental harm to these individuals could trigger a cascade of unpredictable and potentially catastrophic international consequences. Such an event could easily escalate the conflict to an unprecedented level, potentially drawing in additional global powers and dramatically shifting the balance of the war.
The potential for a diplomatic and material disaster for Ukraine is considerable. An attack on the parade, especially one causing harm to foreign leaders, could result in immediate sanctions, boycotts, and possibly even direct military intervention by some of the countries whose leaders are present. The disruption of crucial supply lines, particularly the flow of vital drone components and technological resources from China, could be devastating to the Ukrainian war effort.
Despite the inherent risks and potential for widespread international condemnation, Zelensky’s statement is a calculated maneuver. It keeps Russia guessing and increases the uncertainty surrounding the parade, creating a climate of apprehension and fear within Moscow. This uncertainty itself can be considered a form of psychological warfare, putting pressure on the Russian leadership and potentially influencing the decisions of foreign leaders considering attendance.
While many individuals, even some within Ukraine, might advocate for a direct strike on the parade, the reality is that the risks severely outweigh any potential benefits. The potential for global backlash and the catastrophic consequences for Ukraine’s war effort make such a move strategically unwise.
Zelensky’s comments, therefore, serve multiple purposes. They highlight the absurdity of Russia’s expectations, create an atmosphere of uncertainty in Moscow, and remind the world that Ukraine is actively engaged in a war against a powerful aggressor. The ambiguity surrounding Ukraine’s intentions also allows for a degree of plausible deniability, should Russia attempt to blame Ukraine for any provocations or incidents occurring during the parade.
Ultimately, the question of Ukraine’s responsibility for the safety of foreign officials visiting Moscow for the parade is not a question of military capability, but of calculated risk assessment. The potential for disastrous consequences far outweighs any short-term gains, making Zelensky’s stance, however provocative, a strategically sound one in the long term. The current situation presents a complex web of military and political considerations, and Ukraine’s measured response underscores the severity of the circumstances and the complexities involved in navigating a global conflict.