By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Ahead of a call with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin reportedly believes Russia will seize four Ukrainian oblasts by 2025, thus possessing leverage against any peace negotiations. This confidence, despite contradicting Western and even some Russian military assessments, fuels Putin’s unwillingness to concede. European officials worry Trump might pressure for a settlement regardless of Putin’s stance, while Putin remains prepared for a protracted conflict. Trump, conversely, seeks a swift resolution and plans to update Zelenskyy and NATO allies following his conversation with Putin.
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Putin’s recent claim, as reported by Bloomberg, that he’s confident of seizing four Ukrainian oblasts by the end of 2025, is a bold assertion that warrants a closer look. This statement, coming from a leader who previously predicted a swift victory in Kyiv within 72 hours, raises serious questions about the basis for such optimism.
The sheer audacity of this claim stands in stark contrast to the reality on the ground. Russia’s military performance in Ukraine has been far from the decisive victory Putin initially envisioned. The protracted and costly battles for cities like Bakhmut, coupled with the ongoing struggle to secure even smaller towns, paints a picture far removed from the swift, decisive conquest Putin seems to believe is achievable. The slow, grinding advances made by Russian forces, even in the face of significant losses, demonstrate a considerable military stalemate, hardly suggestive of a comprehensive victory by the end of 2025.
One plausible explanation for Putin’s confidence lies in access to intelligence or analysis that suggests a dramatic shift in the war’s trajectory in Russia’s favour. However, the lack of any visible indication of such a shift makes this scenario seem improbable.
A more likely explanation involves the possibility that Putin is being misinformed by his advisors. A self-serving narrative of impending victory might be presented to him, shielding him from the grim realities of the war’s devastating effects and persistent setbacks. This would explain the disconnect between the reality of Russia’s military struggles and Putin’s public pronouncements of inevitable success.
The third and perhaps most likely scenario is that Putin is employing a bluff, attempting to leverage his stated confidence to secure a more advantageous treaty before Russia’s military resources are completely depleted. Facing dwindling supplies and mounting casualties, a desperate gamble for a negotiated settlement, however unfavorable, might be deemed preferable to continued military stalemate or outright defeat. This strategy relies on the assumption that escalating the rhetoric can pressure the opposing side to accept concessions, effectively creating an artificial sense of urgency to end the war on Russia’s terms.
Beyond the possibility of miscalculations or deliberate obfuscation, there is an additional factor fueling the narrative of impending victory: Putin’s inherent need to maintain his regime’s control. Confessing that Russia may be incapable of achieving their goals would risk instability and potentially undermine his grip on power. Hence, expressing absolute confidence in the ability to seize more Ukrainian territory serves as a form of political self-preservation.
The reality, however, is far different from Putin’s professed confidence. The ongoing struggle to maintain control of even the occupied territories underlines the inherent fragility of Russia’s position in the war. Continued losses and the exhausting of resources suggest a very real possibility of another major collapse of Russian forces, leading to a situation mirroring the early phases of the conflict.
The international community’s response, particularly the continued supply of advanced weaponry to Ukraine, is also a key factor that seems to be absent from Putin’s assessment. The steady flow of Western aid, as evidenced by recent announcements of additional Abrams tanks, continues to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities, making the task of seizing further territory even more challenging for Russia.
Ultimately, Putin’s claim of confidently seizing four Ukrainian oblasts by the end of 2025 seems far-fetched. The disparity between his optimistic projections and the demonstrable struggles of the Russian military on the battlefield, combined with the continuing support for Ukraine from its allies, suggests that this confident declaration might be nothing more than wishful thinking, a desperate attempt to maintain control amidst the unfolding catastrophe. It is a high-stakes gamble, resting on a fragile foundation of miscalculation, misinformation, or perhaps, a simple refusal to accept reality.