By John Q. Hosedrinker 
A newly signed US-Ukraine economic partnership agreement has heightened concerns in Moscow that Russia’s negotiating leverage regarding the war in Ukraine has diminished. Russian officials reacted contemptuously, viewing the agreement as furthering Ukrainian dependence on the US and potentially hindering Russia’s ability to secure a favorable peace deal. This shift is seen as particularly problematic given internal pressure on Putin to concede, and the potential for increased sanctions if negotiations fail. The agreement is interpreted as solidifying a US-Ukraine alliance, thus eliminating the more Russia-sympathetic approach of the previous Trump administration.
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Putin is under immense pressure in Russia following the signing of the agreement between Ukraine and the USA. The bleak economic outlook, worsened by unexpected actions from a former ally, is fueling anxieties within the Russian elite. The expectation that a former US president would act in a way beneficial to the Kremlin was clearly misplaced, leaving Putin vulnerable. This unexpected turn of events is significantly impacting the political landscape within Russia.
Putin’s actions in Ukraine seem baffling to many; why would he risk millions of lives for territorial gains that wouldn’t personally improve his luxurious lifestyle? This raises questions about his motivations, and the perception that his decisions are detached from the consequences faced by the Russian people. The escalating tensions and the threat of nuclear escalation only intensify the pressure on him.
The uncertainty surrounding the new US-Ukraine alliance is causing significant unease among Russia’s elite. They fear this alliance will close the window for a peace agreement that would favor Russia’s interests, potentially leading to drastic internal shifts of power and perhaps even violent purges. Whispers of people being thrown out of windows in Moscow hint at the severity of the situation and the palpable fear among those close to Putin.
The failed expectation of a continued friendly relationship with a former US president has undeniably contributed to Putin’s current predicament. The lack of trustworthiness in that relationship, compounded by the former president’s unpredictable nature, has undermined Putin’s strategic calculations. This unpredictable element adds to the instability, creating a volatile situation within Russia. This highlights a fundamental flaw in Putin’s strategy: relying on such a volatile and unpredictable individual for geopolitical advantage.
The economic ramifications are significant. The possibility of further economic sanctions and the impact of potential oil price fluctuations due to the former president’s policies directly impact Russia’s economy, and consequently Putin’s power. He bears a substantial amount of responsibility for this perilous situation; his actions in starting the war, and the missed opportunities for favorable peace agreements, created this vulnerability. His unwillingness to accept advantageous peace offers stands out as a critical error in judgment.
Putin’s motivations are complex and likely driven by a combination of factors. The desire for a legacy that secures his place in Russian history as a powerful leader who expanded Russian territory is a significant aspect. The war is not merely a political move, it’s a carefully constructed narrative aimed at rewriting his place in history. He seems intent on restoring Russia’s past glory, potentially even attempting to create a new Russian empire.
This desire for legacy, coupled with an existential fear of Russia’s diminishing global influence, underscores his current actions. He is maneuvering for strategic advantages, potentially setting the stage for future conflicts, all in an attempt to ensure Russia’s continued dominance, or at least to secure his place in history as a strong leader. The warm-water port in Crimea and the strategic location of the Kerch Strait are clear examples of the strategic calculations involved in this longer-term play. This long-game approach reveals a calculated risk-taking that ignores the immediate suffering of his people.
It appears Putin’s ambition, fuelled by an insatiable need to leave a significant mark on history, is blinding him to the potential consequences of his actions. This reckless ambition has placed Russia in a precarious position, both economically and geopolitically. The sanctions imposed upon Russia and the willingness of allies to maintain sanctions show this is not a temporary setback but rather a prolonged strategic conflict.
Even if sanctions are weathered, Putin’s position remains precarious. The ongoing war serves as a means to consolidate power, suppressing any internal opposition or challenges to his authority. The war also becomes a convenient scapegoat for any economic struggles, deflecting criticism and maintaining a sense of national unity, however fragile. Ultimately, Putin’s legacy might be exactly the opposite of what he sought—not the restoration of a Russian empire, but instead the collapse of his regime.