By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia’s unchecked power in the Black Sea grew significantly. Inheritance of the Black Sea fleet and the Sevastopol base, coupled with Crimea’s annexation, solidified Russia’s regional dominance. This control extends to Ukrainian shipping routes. Furthermore, modernization efforts have established substantial anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, challenging NATO’s influence in the region.
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Europe’s plan to reclaim influence in the Black Sea from Russia isn’t about a direct military takeover, but a multifaceted strategy to counter Russia’s dominance and secure the region’s future. The initial assumption of a forceful military intervention is inaccurate; the current situation reflects Ukraine’s significant success in pushing back against Russian naval power.
Ukraine’s actions, utilizing innovative drone technology and Western-supplied weaponry, have severely crippled the Russian Black Sea fleet. The notion that the Black Sea was, or should be, a NATO-controlled lake is misleading. While NATO has an interest in the region’s stability, Turkey’s strategic position, controlling the Bosphorus strait and access to the Black Sea, significantly limits any potential for large-scale Western naval deployments.
The EU’s three-pronged approach focuses on infrastructure improvements, enhanced monitoring, and strengthened partnerships. Investing in regional ports, railways, and airports isn’t about creating a direct military presence, but rather bolstering the region’s capacity to receive and deploy military equipment quickly if needed, strengthening deterrence and supporting NATO allies. This plan acknowledges the existing weakness of trans-European transport infrastructure, a potential vulnerability in any future conflict. The considerable financial investment needed underscores the EU’s commitment.
Simultaneously, the EU intends to establish a Black Sea Maritime Security Hub, providing real-time monitoring of Russian naval and civilian vessel movements. This initiative aims to improve situational awareness, potentially detecting any attempts at sabotage of critical infrastructure, such as undersea cables or offshore energy facilities. The hub’s role in monitoring trade routes is also crucial, given Russia’s past disruptions of Ukrainian grain exports and the ongoing use of a “shadow fleet” to circumvent sanctions. This detailed surveillance is a key part of the strategy to counter Russian influence.
The third pillar of the EU’s plan involves forging stronger partnerships in the region, considering the Black Sea a vital trade artery connecting Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. This involves navigating complex relationships, particularly with Turkey. Turkey, though an EU candidate and NATO member, maintains significant trading relationships with Russia and controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosphorus. This will limit the extent to which Europe can challenge Russia directly. The EU recognizes the crucial role Turkey plays and aims to collaborate, rather than confront, to achieve its objectives.
The idea of “taking back” the Black Sea is therefore better understood as a gradual shift in regional power dynamics, not a direct military conquest. The EU’s strategy aims to counter Russian influence through infrastructural investment, enhanced intelligence-gathering, and careful diplomatic engagement with regional partners. While acknowledging the challenges posed by Turkey’s pivotal role and Russia’s lingering presence, the EU’s plan focuses on increasing stability, protecting trade routes, and preparing for potential future scenarios. This approach recognizes the significant contribution already made by Ukraine in weakening Russia’s naval dominance in the Black Sea. The overall goal is to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Black Sea region through a combination of strategic investment, intelligence gathering, and diplomatic engagement.