By Matt Underwood 
The recent poll showing Bucharest’s pro-EU mayor, Nicușor Dan, surpassing the nationalist frontrunner, George Simion, in Romania’s presidential race is certainly generating significant buzz. This unexpected shift in the polls, just days before the election, is prompting considerable speculation and analysis. The outcome of this election holds significant implications for Romania’s future relationship with the European Union and its geopolitical stance.
The poll, conducted between May 10th and 13th by IRSOP, indicates a significant lead for Dan, with 52% of respondents expressing support compared to Simion’s 48%. This is a dramatic reversal from earlier polls, which showed Simion with a considerable advantage. Another poll, released by AtlasIntel on May 13th, showed a near tie between the two candidates, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty inherent in this election.
One potential factor contributing to Simion’s decline in the polls is his noticeable absence from televised debates. His refusal to participate in these crucial events has been interpreted by some as an attempt to avoid direct confrontation with Dan and a failure to engage with the electorate’s demand for clarity and accountability. This strategy, however, may have backfired, potentially alienating voters seeking to understand the candidates’ positions and platforms before casting their ballot.
The Romanian presidential race is further complicated by the significant underestimation of Simion’s support in previous polls, leading to a cautionary approach in interpreting current survey data. Moreover, the annulment of an election last November due to alleged foreign interference – specifically blamed on Moscow – adds another layer of complexity. Simion, who has inherited the mantle from the pro-Moscow nationalist Călin Georgescu, whose candidacy was central to the election annulment, has proposed Georgescu as his prime minister, a pairing that is less popular than the alternative combination of Dan and the interim president, Ilie Bolojan.
The IRSOP poll reveals a strong preference for Dan’s potential partnership with the current interim president. This finding further underscores the electorate’s apparent apprehension toward Simion’s pro-Moscow leanings and potential influence. A significant majority of respondents in the survey expressed confidence in Dan’s ability to foster better relations with the EU and NATO, further enhancing Romania’s standing within the Western alliance. Conversely, a substantial portion of respondents believe Simion would prioritize closer ties with Moscow.
The relatively small sample size of the IRSOP poll – 951 adults – has raised some concerns about its overall representativeness of Romania’s diverse and sizable population. While statistical principles can enable accurate reflection of population opinions, this remains a point of discussion given the relatively small sample size. Concerns regarding the accuracy of polling data are further amplified by the experiences of previous elections, where significant discrepancies between poll predictions and actual results were observed. The potential influence of factors such as social media campaigns and diaspora voting also needs consideration. The impact of social media, notably TikTok, appears significant, influencing voter sentiment and potentially altering candidate perceptions.
The overall narrative surrounding this election is complex and deeply rooted in broader geopolitical considerations, including Romania’s relationship with the EU and its interactions with Russia. The shifting dynamics of the race suggest a nuanced voter sentiment, shaped by concerns about foreign interference, democratic processes, and the direction of the country’s future. The final days of the campaign will likely be characterized by intense political maneuvering and messaging, as both candidates strive to win over undecided voters. It is important to note that polls provide insights but do not guarantee election outcomes. The final result will ultimately depend on the choices made by Romanian voters on election day.