By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Two polls indicate Australia’s Labor party is poised to win the national election, potentially securing a majority government. A RedBridge-Accent poll shows Labor leading the Liberal-National coalition by 53% to 47%, with a surge in support from younger voters. Concerns about President Trump’s policies significantly influenced Australian voters, while opposition plans for nuclear power plants also proved unpopular. A YouGov poll further predicts a Labor majority, potentially securing up to 85 seats in the Lower House.
Read the original article here
Australia’s centre-left Labor party is strongly favoured to retain power in the upcoming election, a trend mirroring recent successes of centre-left parties in other Western nations. This outcome seems increasingly likely, fuelled by a combination of factors that paint a compelling picture.
The unpopularity of the conservative opposition leader, Peter Dutton, is significantly impacting the election. His perceived lack of charisma and suitability for the role is a major hurdle for the conservative party, making it difficult for them to connect with voters. Dutton’s image problem is further compounded by the perception that he is a generally unpleasant person who would not serve the nation well.
The shadow of Donald Trump’s presidency looms large over this election. The widespread global dissatisfaction with Trump’s authoritarian tendencies and policies seems to be acting as a cautionary tale. Many see him as a negative example, making them less inclined to support candidates who emulate his style or espouse similar ideologies. This anti-Trump sentiment appears to be pushing voters toward centre-left alternatives globally, and Australia seems to be no exception.
The Australian Labor party’s campaign strategy appears to be effectively capitalising on this anti-Trump sentiment. Their social media presence is surprisingly strong, utilizing memes and humourous content to engage voters and counter the opposition’s narrative. One particularly memorable meme juxtaposes the image of a cute kitten with a warning about the opposition leader’s plans to dismantle essential healthcare programs to fund a nuclear program. This clever approach highlights the concerns about the opposition’s policies and resonates with voters.
The current government, despite not being explicitly left-leaning by global standards, has managed to perform relatively well amidst economic headwinds. They have achieved budget surpluses and have been perceived as handling inflation relatively smoothly. This positive economic performance has undeniably bolstered their standing with voters.
Further contributing to Labor’s strong showing is the apparent disarray within the Liberal (conservative) party’s campaign. Numerous campaign gaffes, policy reversals and internal conflicts have undermined their credibility and damaged their public image. These events have created a stark contrast between the two parties, reinforcing the perception that Labor is a more competent and reliable choice. The disastrous handling of an advertising truck incident that crashed into an early voting centre further emphasizes the perception of incompetence.
The Australian electoral system also plays a crucial role. The country’s compulsory voting system, along with the preferential voting system, makes predicting election outcomes somewhat easier than in places like the US. Pre-polling has also made it easier to predict the final outcome. The high voter turnout makes exit polls more reliable. The system seemingly reduces the impact of last-minute swings in voter sentiment.
Although the polls consistently favour Labor, the situation isn’t completely settled. The influence of oligarchs on the media landscape may introduce uncertainty. While Australians generally hold centre-left views, the media frequently pushes a more centrist narrative, potentially underrepresenting the true scope of left-leaning support. Nevertheless, the general consensus among many is that Labor’s victory is highly probable and likely to result in a second term.
The unexpected success of the centre-left parties in various Western countries demonstrates a growing global shift in political sentiment. The potential for this trend to continue depends on various factors, but the current electoral landscape indicates that a preference for moderate policies over far-right rhetoric is emerging, making a win for centre-left parties increasingly likely.