By John Q. Hosedrinker 
President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on nearly all countries except Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and Cuba has sparked mixed reactions in Russia. While some experts believe Russia will benefit from the West’s shifted focus away from the Ukraine conflict, others foresee negative consequences through global economic downturn. The low volume of US-Russia trade minimizes direct benefits, yet the resulting global economic instability presents both opportunities and challenges for the Russian economy. Diverging opinions exist regarding the long-term effects, with some predicting increased trade with Europe while others anticipate harm from reduced global demand and lower oil prices.
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Russia’s belief that they are poised to become a “great superpower” with Trump’s help stems from a complex interplay of factors, not all of them entirely rational. They see themselves as beneficiaries of the trade wars initiated by the Trump administration, specifically citing the exemption of Russia from the tariffs imposed on nearly every other country. This perceived favoritism fuels their grandiose claims.
The exemption, in their view, allows Russia to avoid the economic hardship experienced by countries subjected to these tariffs. This strategic advantage, coupled with the global focus shifting away from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, contributes to their optimism. They believe that the international community’s preoccupation with the fallout from the trade war effectively diminishes attention towards their military actions. This calculated diversion allows them to advance their geopolitical agenda without significant global condemnation.
However, the economic implications of this situation are far from universally agreed upon within Russia itself. While some experts boastfully claim that Russia is strategically positioned to weather any economic storm, others highlight the inherent risks. A significant portion of the Russian economy depends heavily on oil prices, which have suffered as a result of the global economic instability caused by the trade war. This internal debate reflects the uncertain future of the Russian economy.
The Russian analysis doesn’t stop at mere economic considerations. Some go as far as suggesting that Trump’s policies are not merely beneficial by default but represent a calculated move to support Russia’s rise to global dominance. This perspective paints Trump’s actions as a deliberate act of geopolitical maneuvering, intentionally designed to weaken its competitors while strengthening Russia’s position on the world stage. This interpretation, while possibly conspiratorial, underscores the belief within certain sectors that Russia’s rise is strategically linked to the policies and actions of the former US administration.
A crucial aspect of Russia’s outlook involves a carefully cultivated image of resilience. Having faced numerous sanctions in the past, Russia views its ability to withstand these pressures as a testament to its strength and adaptability. Their current situation is framed as another opportunity to demonstrate their fortitude and ultimately emerge victorious. This narrative underscores a sense of national pride and a belief in their capacity to navigate even the most challenging circumstances.
However, it’s essential to acknowledge a clear disconnect between the exuberant claims and the reality on the ground. Russia’s economy, while vast in terms of natural resources and landmass, remains far from the level of development one would expect from a global superpower. The significant wealth disparity within the nation, with a small elite controlling a disproportionate share of resources, further points to systemic economic flaws.
While Russia may harbor hopes of leveraging current global circumstances to its advantage, the picture is far from clear. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coupled with the volatility of oil prices and the broader economic uncertainty, creates significant obstacles to their ambitions. Ultimately, the notion of Russia becoming a “great superpower” with the help of Trump’s policies rests on a combination of strategic optimism, wishful thinking, and a carefully constructed narrative that overlooks significant underlying vulnerabilities. The extent to which Russia’s grand aspirations are truly attainable remains to be seen. The claims, while bold, need to be analyzed within the context of global political and economic dynamics that extend far beyond the immediate effects of any single trade policy.