By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Victor Gao, a former translator for Deng Xiaoping, refutes the notion that the US has successfully isolated China, arguing that the US’s trade war has harmed its own citizens and disregarded global sovereignty. He asserts China’s readiness to withstand this pressure, highlighting China’s long history and vast market, dismissing the significance of losing the US market. Gao emphasizes ongoing dialogue between China and the EU, suggesting potential alternative trade partnerships. He concludes that US-China relations will not improve without a shift in the US’s attitude toward China and a cessation of its antagonistic approach.
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The statement, “If the US wants to shut itself out, be my guest,” encapsulates a potent sentiment regarding the escalating trade tensions between the US and China. It reflects a growing confidence within China that it can withstand, and even thrive under, a decoupling from the American market. This isn’t merely bravado; it speaks to a long-term strategic vision that prioritizes self-reliance and global diversification.
The assertion that China doesn’t care about losing the US market, representing roughly 15% of its exports, is a bold one. The argument hinges on China’s immense history and resilience, emphasizing its ability to endure and prosper without the US for millennia. This perspective frames the current economic conflict as a relatively insignificant blip in China’s long trajectory. The sheer scale of China’s economy and its vast domestic market are implicitly invoked as buffers against potential economic disruption.
This confidence is further bolstered by the belief that the US, in contrast, is far more vulnerable to a trade war. The argument posits that the US economy is far more deeply intertwined with China’s than vice versa, making a significant decoupling far more damaging to the US. China’s manufacturing capacity and its ability to quickly pivot to alternative trading partners are seen as critical advantages in this scenario.
The notion of China simply waiting out the US, allowing the US’s self-inflicted economic wounds to worsen, is frequently raised. This strategy seemingly involves minimal active intervention on China’s part; the focus is on maintaining stability and letting the US’s actions lead to its own downfall. The anticipation is that former US allies and trade partners will increasingly turn to China, seeking stability and reliable economic partnerships. This underscores a shift in global power dynamics, with China positioned to benefit from the US’s perceived decline.
Concerns about the potential consequences of such a decoupling are also addressed. While acknowledging that economic hardship is never the preferred option, the perspective suggests that China is willing to endure some level of pain to achieve its long-term strategic goals. This willingness to accept a degree of hardship contrasts sharply with the perception of the US’s relative aversion to economic pain. This willingness is juxtaposed against potential negative consequences such as the strains on China’s younger generation facing a challenging job market. Despite these internal pressures, there’s a conviction that the long-term benefits of strategic independence outweigh short-term economic setbacks.
The argument consistently highlights China’s adaptability and resilience. Its manufacturing sector, it’s claimed, can adjust quickly to changing global markets. While acknowledging the challenges of shifting to new customers and adapting to different standards, the assessment suggests China’s capacity to navigate these transitions far surpasses that of other nations. This emphasizes China’s manufacturing prowess and its ability to quickly adjust production processes and materials to suit the requirements of new markets.
However, the narrative also includes counterpoints and nuances. The potential for significant economic disruption within China is acknowledged, but minimized in comparison to the predicted damage to the US. The possibility of China facing a reduced customer base, lower sales volumes, and price adjustments is not dismissed, but framed within the larger context of China’s long-term survival and ultimate victory.
The overall message is not one of unmitigated triumphalism, but rather a calculated assessment of the situation. While acknowledging potential challenges and costs, the narrative strongly emphasizes China’s strategic advantages and its ability to weather the storm of a decoupling with the US, ultimately emerging as a stronger global player. It is a confident assessment that challenges the conventional wisdom surrounding the current geopolitical landscape and the future of US-China relations.