By John Q. Hosedrinker 
On February 12, 2025, an RCMP Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter touched down at the Lansdowne port of entry. Recent polling data reveals that Canadians view relations with the U.S. as negatively as those with Russia. This coincides with a demonstrated willingness among Canadians to strengthen ties with both China and, more significantly, Mexico.
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Canadians’ perception of their relationship with the United States has significantly deteriorated, reaching a point where it’s viewed as poorly as relations with Russia, and even worse than ties with China. This dramatic shift in sentiment is not solely based on current events, but rather reflects a culmination of concerns and past grievances. The perceived threat to Canadian sovereignty and economic stability stemming from past political rhetoric and actions has played a considerable role in shaping this negative view.
The feeling of betrayal by a close ally, a “friend” who has acted in ways perceived as harmful, is significantly more painful than the perceived threat from a known adversary. This is particularly pertinent in the context of the U.S.-Canada relationship, where past actions have eroded trust and fostered a sense of vulnerability. The perceived similarities between Russia and the U.S. in terms of unpredictable and potentially damaging actions further contribute to this negative assessment. Both are now seen by some as unreliable actors on the world stage.
The unpredictability and potential for harmful actions from the U.S. government stands in stark contrast to the perceived predictability of China. While China’s actions are not necessarily seen as benevolent, there’s a sense that their intentions are clearer and less directly threatening to Canada’s territorial integrity. The absence of overt territorial claims from China is a key factor differentiating their relationship with Canada from that with the U.S., where past actions and rhetoric have fueled anxieties about potential annexation.
This negative assessment isn’t simply about one particular administration or event; it reflects a deeper concern about systemic issues and the potential for future instability. The perception that the U.S. is no longer the dependable ally it once was, but rather a potential antagonist, is deeply unsettling for many Canadians. There’s a feeling of deep-seated frustration and concern regarding the actions of past and potentially future administrations. The possibility of a repeat of past behaviors casts a long shadow over the relationship.
The belief that the U.S. poses a direct threat to Canada’s sovereignty is a significant factor driving this negative view. This perception is linked to both historical events and recent actions, leading many to question the reliability and trustworthiness of the U.S. as an ally. The perception of economic coercion and threats to sovereignty are contributing factors to the widespread sense of distrust among many Canadians.
Concerns regarding the unpredictable nature of U.S. foreign policy and the potential for erratic behavior by future administrations contribute significantly to the negative assessment of the relationship. This anxiety extends beyond immediate concerns, casting doubt on the long-term reliability and predictability of the U.S. as a partner. The lack of confidence in the future stability of U.S. policies fuels the apprehension towards the relationship.
The comparison to relations with Russia and China underscores the severity of the situation. The fact that Canada views relations with the U.S. as equally poor as those with Russia, a country with a history of conflict and aggression, highlights the depth of the current crisis in the relationship. Simultaneously, the fact that Canada rates its relationship with the U.S. as worse than its relationship with China indicates a significant erosion of trust and confidence. This low opinion is not a fleeting sentiment but a reflection of long-term anxieties.
While some argue that these negative perceptions are exaggerated or driven by temporary political events, many Canadians feel that these concerns are justified and represent a fundamental shift in the nature of the relationship. There’s a sense that the damage caused by past actions and rhetoric cannot be easily repaired. The long-term implications of this decline in trust are significant and far-reaching, impacting various aspects of the bilateral relationship. For many, the damage is generational and deeply ingrained. The hope for a return to a more positive relationship hinges upon substantial and lasting changes in U.S. policy and behavior.