By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Highly effective Ukrainian operations have significantly constrained Russia’s Black Sea naval capabilities, a major blow to the Kremlin. Since February 2022, Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed at least 24 Russian vessels, including the flagship Moskva. This forced the relocation of major Russian Black Sea Fleet assets from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. Despite these setbacks, the Russian fleet continues to support ground offensives with long-range strikes.
Read the original article here
Ukrainian troops have significantly degraded a key component of the Russian military apparatus, effectively crippling their naval capabilities in the Black Sea. This has resulted in a situation where Russia, a nation with a historically formidable navy, is losing a naval war against a country that, until recently, possessed a comparatively weak fleet.
The impact of this strategic setback for Russia is profound. Reports indicate that Russian forces are struggling to maintain supply lines, resorting to using donkeys to transport essential goods because their vehicle fleet has been decimated. This logistical nightmare reflects a broader pattern of operational challenges and declining morale within the Russian ranks. Soldiers are reportedly injured and scavenging for food and water, a stark contrast to the perceived strength of a major military power.
The current state of the Russian Black Sea fleet is severely limited. While long-range missile attacks on mainland Ukraine remain a threat, their ability to effectively control the sea lanes has been drastically curtailed. This is largely due to the innovative and effective tactics employed by Ukrainian forces, particularly their utilization of small, unmanned vessels. These inexpensive, modern vessels pose a significant threat to larger, more traditional warships. This asymmetric warfare strategy has demonstrably pushed the Russian fleet back, making it risky for them to intercept Ukrainian grain shipments.
This success in neutralizing the Russian navy hasn’t been built overnight. It’s the culmination of factors that include past events and the ongoing counteroffensive. The sinking of the Moskva in April 2022 was a significant blow, and the current situation is a continuation of that ongoing degradation of Russian naval power. The loss of Sevastopol in 2014 severely impacted the Russian navy’s strength, leaving them with a fragmented and poorly maintained fleet of mostly Soviet-era vessels. The Ukrainian navy, while relatively small, has effectively used its assets and strategic positioning to maximize their impact against the Russian navy.
The narrative suggesting a future Russo-American alliance that would reverse Ukraine’s gains is dubious at best. While the US’s role in the conflict is multifaceted and subject to ongoing debate, Russia’s internal economic problems are severe and unlikely to be quickly resolved by any external intervention. Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on a wartime footing, with an unsustainable 8.6% inflation rate. This economic instability, combined with demographic issues and a severely damaged international reputation, casts significant doubt on any purported strength of a potential alliance. In contrast, Ukraine’s post-war economic prospects appear far brighter with significant European investment already planned and a ready workforce skilled in engineering and mechanics.
Even the supposed gains of territory for Russia during the conflict are arguably pyrrhic victories. The land taken comes at an immense cost, leaving behind vast areas of devastation littered with mines and unusable for agriculture for decades to come. This is in contrast to the potential for long-term prosperity and economic growth awaiting Ukraine.
In the long term, the costs associated with the Russian invasion – military, economic, and reputational – far outweigh any potential short-term gains. This perspective casts serious doubt on the overall success of the Russian military campaign and the very premise of a future Russo-American alliance that would turn the tide of the war. The strategic success of Ukraine in limiting Russian naval power, particularly in the Black Sea, demonstrates the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare and highlights the potential for even smaller nations to effectively challenge larger military powers through innovation and adaptation. While the future remains uncertain, the current reality points toward a significant Russian military setback, with lasting implications for their naval capabilities and overall strategic positioning in the region.