By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Dr. Aisha Ahmad, a University of Toronto professor specializing in insurgency, argues that a U.S. invasion of Canada would not result in a swift victory for the American military. Instead, she predicts a decades-long guerrilla war involving a substantial portion of the Canadian population, fueled by readily available civilian weaponry and international support. This protracted conflict would severely strain U.S. resources, potentially leading to its economic and political downfall, and simultaneously devastating Canada. Ultimately, Ahmad emphasizes the catastrophic consequences of such a scenario, contrasting it with the benefits of a peaceful relationship between the two nations.
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Invading Canada would spark a protracted guerrilla war, potentially lasting for decades. This isn’t mere speculation; the very real possibility is causing considerable anxiety and anger among Canadians. The casual discussion of annexation, fueled by inflammatory rhetoric, has transformed from a joke into a genuine threat.
The perception of this threat is deeply rooted in the belief that the intent is to replicate the invasion of Ukraine. The parallels drawn are unsettling, and the false narratives propagated to justify such aggression are seen as a deliberate strategy to normalize the idea of invasion.
This isn’t just some abstract fear; Canadians are genuinely concerned about the safety of their families and their nation. Conversations about potential attacks and preparations for armed conflict are commonplace. This includes discussions amongst close-knit family members as well as strangers encountering each other in everyday life.
The current state of affairs represents a shocking erosion of trust between nations that were once close allies. The stark contrast between the warm words of a recent visit by President Biden and the current hostile rhetoric speaks volumes about the rapid deterioration of the relationship.
The level of concern is understandable, even if the probability of an invasion remains debatable. The very act of such a threat being voiced creates fear, uncertainty, and disruption to daily life. The damage to the relationship between the countries will likely never fully heal.
The response to such a hypothetical invasion wouldn’t be limited to a conventional military conflict. The unique geography of Canada, combined with the determined resistance of its populace, would create ideal conditions for a protracted, highly effective guerilla campaign.
The Canadian people would undoubtedly engage in a determined defense of their nation. Drawing parallels to other conflicts, particularly insurgencies in Afghanistan, it’s clear that a less powerful force can effectively resist a stronger one, especially through unconventional methods.
The strategic advantages of such a defensive strategy are numerous, particularly in the vast, often unforgiving terrain of Canada. The sheer size of the country, the challenges of moving troops, and the difficulty of maintaining supply lines would all favor a guerrilla fighting style.
Beyond the military response, a significant economic disruption is likely. Canadians are already actively boycotting U.S. goods and services, demonstrating their determination to resist any perceived aggression. This action could further destabilize the relationship and add economic pressure.
The potential consequences for the U.S. extend far beyond the Canadian border. Such an act would likely trigger NATO’s Article 5, leading to a broader international conflict. Internally, the U.S. could face a civil war, further exacerbating the already strained political climate.
Many Americans express solidarity with Canada and vow to fight alongside Canadians in the event of an invasion. This cross-border support reflects a growing sentiment among many Americans who oppose such reckless foreign policy.
However, there’s an even more important fight happening right now, before any hypothetical invasion. Americans need to pressure their elected officials to condemn any threats against Canada and actively work to prevent any hostile actions. Only if this fails should military support be considered.
The current situation is alarming, but not insurmountable. The future trajectory of the relationship between the U.S. and Canada depends largely on the actions taken today. A concerted effort to de-escalate tensions and restore trust is crucial before any irreversible damage is done.