By John Q. Hosedrinker 
China seeks to leverage President Trump’s aversion to multilateralism and his pursuit of bilateral relations with North Korea to strengthen its own ties with Japan and South Korea. This strategy involves promoting trilateral cooperation on North Korean denuclearization, including President Xi Jinping’s planned attendance at the APEC summit in South Korea and support for a future leaders’ summit. This initiative, which includes academic exchanges currently spearheaded by Tsinghua University, aims to ultimately involve government officials and potentially counter growing North Korea-Russia military cooperation. China’s actions follow a period of strained relations with North Korea over its military support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
Read the original article here
China’s potential collaboration with Japan and South Korea to denuclearize North Korea is a significant development, one that could reshape the geopolitical landscape. The possibility suggests a dramatic shift in China’s approach to the volatile Korean Peninsula, and a potential move toward filling the global leadership void left by a declining US influence.
This proposed trilateral partnership offers China a unique opportunity to solidify its position on the world stage. Successfully mediating the denuclearization of North Korea would be a massive achievement, granting China considerable credibility and influence, particularly within the ASEAN region. This could be viewed as a calculated risk – a major strategic win with the potential to significantly elevate China’s global standing.
However, the motivation behind China’s apparent willingness to engage in this complex endeavor deserves closer scrutiny. It’s possible that China’s weariness with North Korea’s unpredictable behavior and its alliance with Russia, coupled with the US’s diminishing global influence, has created an opportune moment for China to assert itself. The weakening US alliances in both Europe and Asia might be creating a power vacuum that China is keen to exploit.
Some might argue that China’s offer of denuclearization is not entirely altruistic. It could be a strategic move to gain further leverage over South Korea, given its proximity to the US. By effectively offloading the costs of dealing with North Korea onto South Korea, China might be achieving a long-term strategic goal. This, of course, is highly speculative, but it is a reasonable line of thought given the complex geopolitical realities at play.
The potential success of such a venture raises many questions. China’s past involvement in enabling North Korea’s nuclear program casts a long shadow over any such proposal. Presenting denuclearization as a reward for cooperation could be interpreted as a cynical maneuver to further China’s own interests. This could be viewed by some as a power play designed to make the US appear weak and ineffective on the global stage.
Furthermore, the precedent set by the situation in Ukraine raises serious doubts about the willingness of any nuclear power to completely disarm, regardless of incentives. The historical and ongoing reluctance of states to surrender their nuclear arsenal underscores the immense challenges involved in such a complex undertaking.
The potential for such an initiative also highlights the significant shift in global power dynamics. The US’s decline in global influence, driven by internal strife and shifting alliances, presents China with an opportunity to become a more prominent player in global affairs. China’s actions could be viewed as a strategic response to the US’s weakened position, demonstrating its ambition to assume a leading role in international security and diplomacy.
However, it’s crucial to remain cautious. China’s increasing assertiveness in recent years, shifting from economic expansion to territorial expansion, should not be ignored. The purported benevolent intentions behind denuclearization efforts could mask ulterior motives. The seemingly positive outcome of a denuclearized North Korea could potentially lead to a series of negative consequences, including further Chinese territorial expansion into the Korean Peninsula.
The unfolding situation is fraught with complexities and uncertainties. It’s a high-stakes game with potential rewards and risks for all parties involved. The outcome will significantly impact the future geopolitical order and the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, and the world. Ultimately, only time will tell if China’s initiative will bear fruit, or whether it will serve as a mere stepping stone in a much larger power struggle.