By John Q. Hosedrinker China has proposed to the EU its participation in a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine, suggesting that Russia might be more receptive to such a mission with Chinese involvement. This proposal, discussed by Chinese diplomats in Brussels, is considered sensitive, but could strengthen a “coalition of the willing,” potentially exceeding 30 countries. A summit next Thursday, hosted by France, will focus on renewed support for Ukraine, including the possible deployment of peacekeepers contingent on a ceasefire. However, Ukraine itself is working to unify differing approaches to the composition and deployment of any such contingent.
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China is considering deploying a contingent to Ukraine, a move that has sparked considerable debate and speculation. The potential deployment is driven by a confluence of factors, primarily China’s significant economic interests in Europe. As an export-driven economy, China relies heavily on wealthy European nations as key trading partners. Russia, currently embroiled in conflict, cannot fulfill this role, making a stable and prosperous Europe crucial for China’s economic well-being.
China is considering this deployment also because of Ukraine’s considerable resources and its surprisingly resilient stance against Russia. The ongoing conflict has not only disrupted global supply chains, but also revealed opportunities for other major powers. Ukraine, despite the war, continues to produce significant quantities of food and possesses substantial mineral reserves; rebuilding its infrastructure will create lucrative opportunities for construction and material companies. This could provide a considerable boost to the Chinese economy.
China’s potential deployment is not solely motivated by economic self-interest. There’s a geopolitical element at play; namely the power vacuum created by the relative withdrawal of the US from international affairs. China sees this vacuum as an opportunity to position itself as a major global player, presenting itself as a mediator and peacemaker in the conflict. This approach would enhance their international standing and influence, potentially surpassing even the US in certain regions.
Moreover, Russia’s increasingly isolated position creates a strategic window for China to leverage its influence. A Chinese peacekeeping force in Ukraine would likely be viewed far less hostilely by Russia than a similar presence from NATO countries. This allows China to exert considerable power without directly antagonizing its nominal ally. While there might be underlying resentment from Russia, the risk of direct conflict with China is far lower than with Western nations.
The proposed peacekeeping force also serves China’s strategic interests beyond the immediate conflict. Control over Ukraine’s ports and energy infrastructure would be a significant prize. This would grant China influence over regional trade routes and resources, potentially challenging existing global power dynamics and solidifying its position as a significant player in the region’s future.
This is not merely a calculated political move but also a shrewd economic one. China is likely anticipating immense profit from its involvement in the reconstruction of Ukraine. The rebuilding efforts could generate considerable business opportunities for Chinese companies, giving them a major head-start in the process and solidifying Chinese dominance in this sector.
However, the situation is far from straightforward. There are significant obstacles China must overcome. Obtaining access to Ukraine and securing cooperation with other stakeholders, particularly Turkey which controls access to the Black Sea, are potential roadblocks. Internal disagreements within the EU over how best to handle the situation, and the differing human rights positions of China and the EU, could also create further complications. Furthermore, accusations of ulterior motives, such as using the peacekeepers for intelligence gathering or exploitation of Ukrainian resources, will inevitably arise, possibly undermining China’s image and intentions.
Despite the potential pitfalls, the opportunity for China is enormous. Their potential involvement in Ukraine is a complex gamble, presenting significant risks alongside considerable rewards. The move, however, reflects a keen awareness of evolving global dynamics and a willingness to exploit emerging power vacuums to China’s benefit. The decision will significantly influence the future trajectory of the conflict and reshape the broader geopolitical landscape. The outcome of China’s consideration remains to be seen, but the potential ramifications are undeniably profound and far-reaching.