By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Recent Economist/YouGov polls indicate a decline in President Trump’s approval rating, with disapproval now exceeding approval for the first time since his inauguration. This shift follows a period of relatively high, albeit fluctuating, approval ratings since his second term began. While some attribute the change to normal polling variations, the trend warrants further observation. The decline is notable given Trump’s history of closely monitoring and reacting to public opinion polls.
Read the original article here
Donald Trump’s initial post-inaugural approval ratings, while described by some as “high,” were actually among the lowest in recent history, even lower than his previous term’s. This fact is often overlooked when discussing the subsequent decline. The perception of a “high” approval rating was likely skewed by comparison to his historically low baseline, rather than reflecting genuine widespread support.
The narrative of a significant drop in approval is further complicated by differing interpretations of the data. Some argue that the initial numbers were artificially inflated or misleading, while others point to a steady, if unspectacular, approval rating among his core supporters, who remain largely unmoved by negative press or policy changes. In reality, it appears the perceived “high” was more a matter of perspective than a genuine surge in popularity.
However, a more accurate portrayal focuses on the increasing disapproval ratings. While a segment of his base continues to express unwavering support, described by some as an attitude of “not tired of winning,” the disapproval numbers have clearly risen significantly. This shift in the overall sentiment is what explains the perceived decline in his total approval rating. It wasn’t so much a drop in approval as a rise in disapproval.
The ongoing decline is also seen in the context of policy decisions. Concerns over potential cuts to social programs like Medicaid, food assistance, and housing assistance fuel disapproval, especially among those who rely on these programs. The anticipated impacts of these potential cuts are casting a long shadow on Trump’s standing and are likely contributing factors to his declining approval.
The speed and depth of the fall are subjects of ongoing speculation. Some predict a continued, steep decline, projecting numbers into the low 30s or even 20s, with the suggestion that even his most loyal followers will start to feel the pinch of his policies. Others believe the decline will level off at around 30%, representing the hard core base that remains steadfast in their support, regardless of external pressures or evidence.
The significance of these approval rating fluctuations is further debated. Some observers express skepticism towards the numbers themselves, questioning the methodology and suggesting manipulation or misrepresentation. Others view the numbers as a symptom of a larger political and social divide, arguing that the data reflects the deep polarization within the country. Yet another viewpoint considers the decline to be irrelevant, focusing instead on the perceived threat of a political coup as the driving force in Trump’s actions.
Regardless of the precise numbers, the decline itself suggests a shift in public opinion. Even if the initial numbers were comparatively low, the further erosion speaks volumes. The idea that any approval rating above zero is excessive, illustrates the intense dissatisfaction a significant portion of the population holds. The argument that he never had a “high” approval rating, is frequently countered by those who believe the numbers, however low, still represent support and therefore legitimacy.
The decline raises crucial questions about the electorate and the nature of political discourse. The continued, stubborn support of even a sizable minority of the population raises concerns about misinformation, loyalty to a personality cult, and the power of partisan rhetoric. On the other hand, the growing wave of disapproval highlights the concerns among voters and the limitations of his policies.
Ultimately, the narrative around Donald Trump’s approval ratings is multifaceted and complex. It’s not a simple story of a steep decline from an initially high point, but rather a more nuanced picture involving baseline comparisons, shifting public opinion, policy concerns, and even doubts about the reliability of the data itself. The ultimate effect on his political future remains to be seen.